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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Wow, I thought I would post this here for the Lucid naysayers to try to figure out. Lucid made a post merger high yesterday at $28, but today broke out, and up nealry 46%. On the Bull side I have no explanation for this kind of move other then bubble bubble bubble, I am unloading some of mine today.



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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
They just announced the big delivery in CA on Saturday.

That was announced or rumored a few days ago, and the CEO said first deliveries will be in October a month ago. Anyway, the price and market cap have gotten way ahead of themselves at this point, so I sold 3/4 of my holdings, and half of my children's holdings this morning, this is just pure craziness. Maybe when they announce earnings a bit of reality will set in.
 

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I think it will be 6-12... Deliver 1-2 million dollars worth of cars that likely cost 10X that much to build and the stock goes up 47%... Huh?
At least 6 are on this truck.

 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
At least 6 are on this truck.

Wow, 6? thats a lot... A million dollars worth... o_O Lucid's Valuation today matches Ford who just reported $1.8B in net profit and $7B of automotive free cash flow yesterday... I mean when I bought Lucid stock I thought it would go up eventually, but not like this insanity. I have never seen anything like this in the market in 30 year of investing.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
EV charging is a trainwreck as a business. It is almost impossible to make a profit owning charging stations, with all the utility surcharges. I stay away from commodities, including batteries.
 

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EV charging is a trainwreck as a business. It is almost impossible to make a profit owning charging stations, with all the utility surcharges. I stay away from commodities, including batteries.
Yep, EA is now installing Tesla batteries at all their sites to reduce demand charges, a double whammy on commodities. I got invited to an EA webinar a couple of years ago, and they showed a slide where a charging session in Utah, with 4 of Tom's Etrons at one time, cost $1100 due to demand charges.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
Yep, EA is now installing Tesla batteries at all their sites to reduce demand charges, a double whammy on commodities. I got invited to an EA webinar a couple of years ago, and they showed a slide where a charging session in Utah, with 4 of Tom's Etrons at one time, cost $1100 due to demand charges.
Ya, thats right, when the E-Tron pig pulls in the charger goes "oh shoot, I actually have to work now". haha! Audi sent us a surprise email this week, bring the car in for a software update and 7-8% more range. Hope the software update does not come with any negative surprises.

I really hate to badmouth anybody's investment ideas (I get plenty of backlash on some of mine), but investing in charging infrastructure and battery breakthroughs is so speculative on the batteries, and just naive on the charging infrastructure. Charging infrastructure is tough, and I do not see a path to profitability for any of them. I could see OEM's investing to get exclusive rights, but even that is questionable. On batteries startups with new technology are such a long shot and so hard for them to deliver. Even if their technology works, scaling into production for a startup and finding a way to profit from it is almost impossible. Now, I am not against speculative investing, I bought a lot of Lucid stock, but when the speculators got out of control (yesterday ) I got out of the way, and even got my children's principal investment + out, because usually when a stock that is pre revenue and profit goes crazy like that, there is the other side of that mountain. I like Lucid as an investment below $30B (I did most of my buying below $24B), but at $60B and more than Ford, My money is floating in a bubble, and I want to capture it before the bubble pops. Lucid will report earnings November 15th, and that is likely to be a wake up call for these speculators as they are going to see massive losses and cash burn. If Lucid corrects back to reality I will happily buy again, but for now I could not recommend investing in that one either.
 
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