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Huge EV news here, Elon Musk says over 400 miles of range is not needed, and cancels Model S Plaid +, I think Tesla is finding range over 400 miles to be elusive from an engineering standpoint (as I have been stating all along). What does this mean for Cybertruck? I think we all can guess, Tesla is struggling with their 4680 batteries, and not getting the cost saving and density they hoped they would get. I cut this from Electrek;

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Huge EV news here, Elon Musk says over 400 miles of range is not needed, and cancels Model S Plaid +, I think Tesla is finding range over 400 miles to be elusive from an engineering standpoint (as I have been stating all along). What does this mean for Cybertruck? I think we all can guess, Tesla is struggling with their 4680 batteries, and not getting the cost saving and density they hoped they would get. I cut this from Electrek;

View attachment 942

To be a little fair to Tesla here (and I am far from a Tesla fan boy!), I do think the issue here is mostly the battery manufacturing yield and not so much battery density. Which could still be a huge problem if they don’t get enough batteries made. They will need a huge battery pack for the cybertruck for the “500 mile range version”, since it’s not going to be as aerodynamic or light as some people on YouTube seem to think. So I do think they are trying to keep as many batteries for the truck as they can. Even then I don’t see the cybertruck coming out the factory door before next year. The Hummer should have a good head start even if a chip delay or something else slows them down. Tesla should have copied what they have done before, and what GM is doing here, and come out with the fully loaded version to naturally ramp down demand while production ramps up.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
To be a little fair to Tesla here (and I am far from a Tesla fan boy!), I do think the issue here is mostly the battery manufacturing yield and not so much battery density. Which could still be a huge problem if they don’t get enough batteries made. They will need a huge battery pack for the cybertruck for the “500 mile range version”, since it’s not going to be as aerodynamic or light as some people on YouTube seem to think. So I do think they are trying to keep as many batteries for the truck as they can. Even then I don’t see the cybertruck coming out the factory door before next year. The Hummer should have a good head start even if a chip delay or something else slows them down. Tesla should have copied what they have done before, and what GM is doing here, and come out with the fully loaded version to naturally ramp down demand while production ramps up.
Clearly the 4680 battery yield from Tesla's pilot line is officially ZERO as Elon quoted on the latest earnings call 5 weeks ago (Tesla stock crashed on that news). So Yes, 4680 cell production is an issue. Panasonic also stated they hope to have their 4680 pilot line up late this year (in Japan), and work on development. LG Chem is also working on 4680 development and hopes to have a pilot line some time in 2022. Like many things Tesla presented the 4680 at their battery day as something that production was imminent, but that was a year ago, and automotive grade production through April 2021 has been ZERO.
If you notice, all of Tesla's products which need a step up in energy density have been shelved or delayed, Semi, Roadster, Plaid + Model S, and Cybertruck are all well behind schedule. Semi was unveiled 4 years ago, with roadster, and only 5 semi prototypes built. Roadster has 2 concepts, and Cybertruck only one concept has been shown, not even a production prototype yet. As near as I can tell the there is no Cybertruck development or testing program yet.

Now, Tesla could "Surprise" on the 10th, and I fully expect them to have something to stoke excitement, will they roll out the Cybertruck production prototype? Roadster production prototype? Semi production prototype? Any of these are possible, but it all comes down to battery cell production and Tesla officially has ZERO 4680 cells that meet production standards as of 5 weeks ago.

I am not anti Tesla, I am however "Anti Tesla Hype"... I own a Model Y, and like it, can can respect some of the engineering, actually think other OEM's need to benchmark it. I also own Tesla stock, I have cut my holdings this year, but still have a substantial position.

You-Tube has so many Tesla fan boys, many of which are not grounded in reality, and live on every "aspirational" tweet Elon Musk puts out. Bottom line is I think Tesla cancelled Model S Plaid + because they are struggling with 4680, and they are not achieving their aspirations from a cost or energy density level. I mean, 4680 has a lot of copper in it, have you been watching copper prices? Lithium prices? Nickel prices? Battery cost is soaring, and Tesla does not make their own production batteries, so they have little control.

Hummer EV is not really a competitor of Cybertruck, I feel like few Hummer Ev buyers are cross shopping Cybertruck. Rivian is more of a Hummer competitor, even though the Hummer beats the Rivian on almost every level other then efficiency and payload.
 
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