[Tom E-Tron]

This was interesting news out of Rivian in their latest S1 filing (R1 vehicles 65K per year Vans 85K per year), they are planning to build more of the Amazon Vans than they are the R1S and R1T combined. I find this news interesting, and wonder if Rivian has underestimated the market for their Pickup and SUV's? Personally I think EV's are really going to grow over the next 5 years and gain big chunks of market share, especially in large SUV's and crossovers. With High gas prices that dislike hitting the nitrous for the EV adoption rate.


I found this van decision interesting, also because GM is setting up a full line to build BrightDrop vans, and planning to build 10's of thousands per year. How big is the market for these vans? If the cost saving is as high as BrightDrop says it is ($7K per van per year) companies will be forced to replace their entire fleet as quickly as possible, because you simply will not be competitive if you have a fleet of ICE vans. Then we have the post office which is in the middle of a fleet replacement, the potential is huge.

 

[azbill]

UPS now has a partnership for delivery vans as well.

UPS Invests In Arrival And Orders 10,000 Electric Vans

UPS, through its UPS Ventures arm, follows Hyundai and Kia's equity investment in the UK-based commercial EV developer Arrival. UPS will purchase 10,000 Arrival's EVs.

insideevs.com

And Amazon actually tested several Ford E-Transits in San Diego a couple of years ago.

 

[ShouldIHumev22]

I personally believe that Rivian is a total sham and regardless of how much money Amazon paid them and what they are producing it will not last. Did you see their latest evaluation on their IPO... way above what their value is. I remember first hearing about the Rivian Truck and SUV 5+ years ago and they still don't have a vehicle on the road? Coincidence or red flags on their ability to really produce? Where are the dealerships? I saw the recent press event and sure they have a legitimate product but having a product, producing thousands and then supporting them? I just don't see it. Just my opinion, but proceed with caution if you are seriously considering putting down deposit money. It's all refundable until they go bankrupt... then you are out!

 

[azbill]

There is a great deal of angst and moaning on the Rivian forums with all of the delays. I personally could see all the delays coming back in May and cancelled my reservation back then. They still have a lot of fanboys though, even though they have poor communication and delay after delay. They were not ready to deliver and so far only employees and a few insiders have received trucks.

As far as investing in them, no thanks. The only reasonable strategy for now would be short selling.

 

[Tom E-Tron]

I personally believe that Rivian is a total sham and regardless of how much money Amazon paid them and what they are producing it will not last. Did you see their latest evaluation on their IPO... way above what their value is. I remember first hearing about the Rivian Truck and SUV 5+ years ago and they still don't have a vehicle on the road? Coincidence or red flags on their ability to really produce? Where are the dealerships? I saw the recent press event and sure they have a legitimate product but having a product, producing thousands and then supporting them? I just don't see it. Just my opinion, but proceed with caution if you are seriously considering putting down deposit money. It's all refundable until they go bankrupt... then you are out!

Rivian stock is up 55% so far this morning, glad I bought...

 

[Tom E-Tron]

There is a great deal of angst and moaning on the Rivian forums with all of the delays. I personally could see all the delays coming back in May and cancelled my reservation back then. They still have a lot of fanboys though, even though they have poor communication and delay after delay. They were not ready to deliver and so far only employees and a few insiders have received trucks.

As far as investing in them, no thanks. The only reasonable strategy for now would be short selling.

Of course there will be delays, production is hard and for a brand new company nearly impossible, but they will figure it out eventually, and Rivian's reservations are increasing, not the other way...

Stock complete oversubscribed, Rivian got $11.9B out of the IPO, to add to their $3.5B they had, so now they have $15B of cash, They can build another factory and weather a couple rough years getting going. Shorting the stock might not be a good idea, unless you enter quick and exit quick at the right time. Ask people who shorted Tesla when they thought it was overvalued, or Lucid, or GM or Ford or XPEV, short sellers on EV stocks been bleeding bright red for years.

 

[azbill]

They can build another factory and weather a couple rough years getting going.

I think they would be wiser to spend that on getting the service centers set up and getting the existing factory running smoothly, rather than going off building a second brand new factory. They are even talking about a new factory in Europe as well. Tesla went slower early on and still struggled with production.

 

[Tom E-Tron]

I think they would be wiser to spend that on getting the service centers set up and getting the existing factory running smoothly, rather than going off building a second brand new factory. They are even talking about a new factory in Europe as well. Tesla went slower early on and still struggled with production.

Fair points, but Rivian is much better managed, and has a lot more proven talent than Tesla did originally. As for service centers , that is a high priority in markets as you need them, but not faster. Getting production going is by far the highest priority. You need to get revenue coming in to offset the expenses, and slow the cash burn. They have enough service centers up now to support their first 6 months of production, and then they should slowly open them in only the markets with the most pre orders.

Comparing Rivian to 2012 Tesla as they were starting to deliver Model S, there is no comparison. Tesla was under financed (basically month to month on cash flow, borrowing employees credit cards to buy parts), under staffed, down on engineering, down on experienced factory workers. and had an old derelict of a factory and just enough tooling in the corner to basically build a few Models S a day. Rivian is spoiled, $17B in the bank (more cash than Tesla has had at any point in their history prior to 2020), a fully equipped factory set up for 3 unique products which are basically fully engineered at this point. Strong engineering team, strong management team, and now they just have to learn to execute, meanwhile the teams that set up Normal can start to work on their next USA factory. I do not think Rivian will start to expand manufacturing into Europe before 2025, they should concentrate on the home market first, can always ship overflow to Europe like Tesla did.... but with 3 unique products right off the bat, I do to see Rivian runninging into demand issues for the next 5 years at least.

 

[Shaved Ice]

I can see Rivian carving out a market here much easier than an already crowded offroader-ish market.

 

[Tom E-Tron]

I can see Rivian carving out a market here much easier than an already crowded offroader-ish market.

Also much cheaper to sell the vans, don't need a retail presence, and very few parts to break so less service.

 

[Tom E-Tron]

There is a great deal of angst and moaning on the Rivian forums with all of the delays. I personally could see all the delays coming back in May and cancelled my reservation back then. They still have a lot of fanboys though, even though they have poor communication and delay after delay. They were not ready to deliver and so far only employees and a few insiders have received trucks.

As far as investing in them, no thanks. The only reasonable strategy for now would be short selling.

Short Selling appears to be the wrong way to go on Rivian, which has made new All Time Highs every day in the first week of trading, my initial IPO shares have more than doubled already.

 

[Bboozer1]

I was looking at that and hoping that you had decided to hold on to all of your shares and not sell... I wish I had been able to get some at the price that you did....

 

[Tom E-Tron]

I was looking at that and hoping that you had decided to hold on to all of your shares and not sell... I wish I had been able to get some at the price that you did....

I kept the IPO shares, but sold the other shares I bought on the 1st trading day, too soon of course.

 

[Bboozer1]

@Tom E-Tron hindsight is always 20/20....at least you made some $ and didn't lose...

 

[Tom E-Tron]

@Tom E-Tron hindsight is always 20/20....at least you made some $ and didn't lose...

Ya, RIVN has been great so far, pullback today is expected, I hope it pulls back more so I can increase my position, I will wait for around $100 to jump back in.