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Haha. A lot has changed in the last 2 months since my post. I do think we’ll see more production prototypes this summer when they’re installing and tuning the production line equipment. Based on comments over the last couple weeks, it seems confirmed that we can expect more Cybertruck design changes and the new design elements and other production/ supply considerations are now more of an impact on the scheduling than the factory construction.

4680 cell production and battery cost reductions have been an ambiguous target since their announcements. The major improvements in battery efficiency and cost were said to be a few years out when they had battery day. 3-4 years according to this earnings call... Yeah, so not shocking, but also not what I was hoping to hear.

New Model S and X refresh with tri-motor and new interiors look nice. I’m kinda wishing I would have held my 2016 X a while longer, skipped the Y and got the X refresh. The Y is a good car. In many ways a great car. But the X is better in most every way. And a lot more expensive.
Yeah, it now sounds like Cybertruck will rely less on a stressed skin body, and more on structural castings, this is news too.

On Batteries it sounds like Tesla is guiding the same as GM, GM has said they will reduce battery cost 60% by 2025, and GM engineers said off the record they are gunning for 400 wh/kg cell density

I was extremely disappointed with the S refresh (it looks the same), the interior looks better (steering wheel sucks IMO), and more features to compete with E-Tron, but the range increase is disappointing, and they are sticking with the old structure/ suspension, which is long in the tooth at this point. Just putting in faster motors is not really what S and X needed. I mean X already had E-Tron massively beat in horsepower, but loses to E-Tron on the track. Handling balance is what was needed, X has more HP, and less mass, and still loses to E-Tron... hmmm... That can only mean bad engineering. S and X just have too much chassis flex, X is one of the worst modern cars I have ever seen tested in bending moments. When they cut out the roof rails for the rear doors, it killed the chassis ridgity. X and Y are not really comparable, Y has far better engineering, and an extremely stiff chassis. Y is way more fun to drive, and on a track, laughs at the model X, even the Raven X performance which has double the power loses to a base AWD Y on the track.
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
 

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They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
Looking at the specs, the range on the Plaid is less then the dual motor 412 vs 390, to be honest, there is no reason to buy the plaid, the new Model S has plenty of value at $82K. I like the changes they made on the inside (less steering wheel) and performance. Yes, the Raven suspension is better. Tesla changed suppliers on the Air Suspension to ZF on the Raven, and improved the software controls. I would almost buy the new S now, but for me, the 18650 batteries scare me, we had a friends car have thermal runaway, and I would not be able to sleep at night if it was charging, and the back seat (old model) was too cramped for a car that size. I like the interior packaging better on the Lucid, I think they did a better job with the space with the exception of the trunk opening. Just no perfect car out there. ;) 3 motor like Hummer EV with one driving each rear wheel is not more efficient than a differential in the EPA cycle, but is better at high power levels, and gives you vectored control of the wheels for performance driving.

As I understand the new Model S range increase to 412 is due to aerodynamic improvements on the new model, Cd of .208, which is amazingly slick. I look forward to driving one...

Taycan is an amazing car, the local dealer lent me his Turbo S for a day... But $210K is too rich for my blood. I can waste money on a work truck because of section 179, but not for a car.
 

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They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
Looking at the specs, the range on the Plaid is less then the dual motor 412 vs 390, to be honest, there is no reason to buy the plaid, the new Model S has plenty of value at $82K. I like the changes they made on the inside (less steering wheel) and performance. Yes, the Raven suspension is better. Tesla changed suppliers on the Air Suspension to ZF on the Raven, and improved the software controls. I would almost buy the new S now, but for me, the 18650 batteries scare me, we had a friends car have thermal runaway, and I would not be able to sleep at night if it was charging, and the back seat (old model) was too cramped for a car that size. I like the interior packaging better on the Lucid, I think they did a better job with the space with the exception of the trunk opening. Just no perfect car out there. ;) 3 motor like Hummer EV with one driving each rear wheel is not more efficient than a differential in the EPA cycle, but is better at high power levels, and gives you vectored control of the wheels for performance driving.

As I understand the new Model S range increase to 412 is due to aerodynamic improvements on the new model, Cd of .208, which is amazingly slick. I look forward to driving one...

Taycan is an amazing car, the local dealer lent me his Turbo S for a day... But $210K is too rich for my blood. I can waste money on a work truck because of section 179, but not for a car.
I haven't been inside a Taycan but from what I've read about the car the speed is otherworldly. What stood out for you guys when driving it?
 

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I haven't been inside a Taycan but from what I've read about the car the speed is otherworldly. What stood out for you guys when driving it?
First and foremost for me is the seating position, it really fits nicely, and locks you in place. You know you are sitting in something special. The second thing for me is how quiet it is while driving, Quite similar to my E-Tron, which is basically like a bank vault, makes you feel like you are in your own world. Third is the handling, and ride quality, it is soft right up to the point that you push it, and then is sucks down on rails. I do not have experience in 911's, so I cannot compare, but the way the Taycan grips the road is quite impressive. The acceleration I expected, so not a surprise there, but in a launch it feels like it deforms your face it is pulling so hard. It is an intoxicating feeling. IMO the Taycan is the best EV drivers car on the market, and nothing is close for now. I am excited to see the E-Tron GT, next week, it should be a toned down Taycan and maybe a bit more luxurious.
 

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First and foremost for me is the seating position, it really fits nicely, and locks you in place. You know you are sitting in something special. The second thing for me is how quiet it is while driving, Quite similar to my E-Tron, which is basically like a bank vault, makes you feel like you are in your own world. Third is the handling, and ride quality, it is soft right up to the point that you push it, and then is sucks down on rails. I do not have experience in 911's, so I cannot compare, but the way the Taycan grips the road is quite impressive. The acceleration I expected, so not a surprise there, but in a launch it feels like it deforms your face it is pulling so hard. It is an intoxicating feeling. IMO the Taycan is the best EV drivers car on the market, and nothing is close for now. I am excited to see the E-Tron GT, next week, it should be a toned down Taycan and maybe a bit more luxurious.
I believe the seating position is the same as the 911 so that makes sense that it locks you in place. It'll be interesting to see how similar/different the e-tron GT is since it shares the same platform as the Taycan.
 

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I believe the seating position is the same as the 911 so that makes sense that it locks you in place. It'll be interesting to see how similar/different the e-tron GT is since it shares the same platform as the Taycan.
E-Tron GT should be a bit toned down suspension wise, and a bit more luxurious on the interior. One of my friends is counting the moments and planning to order one... My lifestyle and garage space do not allow for a sports car now, so I cannot buy one, plus I do not want to have 2 cars of the same brand, that is too homer-ish for me.
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
My thoughts on the Taycan are pretty similar. Acceleration of my brother's 2019 performance Model S is very similar to the "Turbo" Taycan I drove, but the Taycan feels more aggressive as speed climbs north of 70mph and it offered a higher top speed that I was not able to push to. The suspension and handling is where the Taycan really shines. And of course, less minimalistic interior with better overall fit and finish. And you get Porsche's classic styling. Not to say I don't appreciate a lot of what Tesla has done with their styling of the Model S. I think Tesla has some really clean design language, but at times gives way to minimalism more than it should or tries to solve a problem no one has -- falcon doors on the Model X for example. Owned our Model X for over 4 years and while doors were fun and did on occasion serve to be quite practical, they were not as utilitarian on a daily basis as regular doors. If I were hauling the elderly or loading bulky car seats in and out on a daily basis, the falcon doors would be amazing.

E-Tron GT will be very appealing to many, I think. It will be a more realistic competitor to the Model S and less of a sports car or even fantasy purchase for many. For my day to day use, the Model S would win out for me if I had to decide between it and a Taycan. S is more utilitarian and I could pre-order the 520+ mile range Plaid+ tri-motor S to have it later this year and still have enough left over to buy a Hummer EV vs. buying a fully spec'd Taycan Turbo.

If I were willing to dump $200K+ into a sports car, I would definitely wait to see the Tesla Roadster before making the decision. ...Unless I just had $250K burning a hole in my pocket.
 

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Umm... Cybertruck will be built at the new Gigafactory Texas location. Projected completion is in May and Cybertruck production line is anticipated to start up shortly after. There are two Cybertruck prototypes in public existence. Elon is driving one personally. It’s the one that appeared on Jay Leno’s Garage and has made other public appearances with Elon. The other is making appearances all over California as well — was on display a few months ago at the Peterson Automotive Museum. That prototype is supposedly heading to Texas shortly, if not there already, to increase awareness as the factory is constructed.

I agree that their $70K price tag is going to be a hard target to hit, but I also don’t doubt them. They’ve been surprisingly good at hitting their production goals and specifications. For now, other than a couple prototypes driving around and numbers on paper, we don’t know much. However, enthusiasts (stalkers) have followed the prototypes making > 400 mile trips between the factory and southern CA. So we know they can hit 400+ mile range with them as they are.

One big factor in the cost of Cybertruck is the construction. Folding the body out of stainless steel saves a huge amount of the cost and assembly time. It seems we can expect a similar production methodology for a smaller car. Most likely Platform 4 (Model 4), which has a target price of under $16,000.

I think even with construction efficiencies and the factory staying on schedule, the first customers won’t see their Cybertruck until late next year. And as you said, Elon is not expecting volume production until 2022. Elon has learned his lesson about what to say in those quarterly meetings. For the past 18 months or so, he’s been under-promising and over-delivering.
Do you still see this factory being completely in May? Hmmm, I say end of 2021, scale production late 1Q 2022. I mean it is mid March and they are not done with the foundation yet, and steel work is about 40% done. I don't see much over delivering here for over 8 1/2 months of construction, this looks quite slow, especially compared to GM's project in Lordstown that was only started a couple months earlier, GM has the steelwork done, roof 75%, and is installing production equipment and systems already.
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Discussion Starter · #30 ·
Completion of Phase I was still stated as on track for May, and that was in last week's update with initial line setup commencing immediately after. Now we don't know what they're going to start producing on that line... It seems to be somewhat cryptic and perhaps has changed a time or two, but I think they will be making batteries/ assembling packs there first. Phase II is supposed to be completed in July/August and Phase III by the end of the year.

As for CyberTruck... I really don't expect to see the first one roll off the line until the end of the year, maybe not even until next year. We're supposed to see the final version sometime in Q2.... Some of Elon's tweets have made it sound like not much has changed while others indicate quite a bit has. I think it's going to keep a lot of the same look, especially to the front end. More reliance on cast elements, something about a bulkhead structure. Possibility of "going topless" and some other vague statements that have transpired over the past several months. Yeah, I don't know what to expect. I think they'll put forth a compelling product... But there's just too much about the Hummer EV I like.
 

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Completion of Phase I was still stated as on track for May, and that was in last week's update with initial line setup commencing immediately after. Now we don't know what they're going to start producing on that line... It seems to be somewhat cryptic and perhaps has changed a time or two, but I think they will be making batteries/ assembling packs there first. Phase II is supposed to be completed in July/August and Phase III by the end of the year.

As for CyberTruck... I really don't expect to see the first one roll off the line until the end of the year, maybe not even until next year. We're supposed to see the final version sometime in Q2.... Some of Elon's tweets have made it sound like not much has changed while others indicate quite a bit has. I think it's going to keep a lot of the same look, especially to the front end. More reliance on cast elements, something about a bulkhead structure. Possibility of "going topless" and some other vague statements that have transpired over the past several months. Yeah, I don't know what to expect. I think they'll put forth a compelling product... But there's just too much about the Hummer EV I like.
Haha, scaling back your expectations? You told me first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July, I feel mean to pick on you because clearly you have no idea what you are looking at, and I have been a general contractor for 30 years and know how to assess progress on a construction site. This is extremely slow, and Tesla is way over their head... Just look at the site staging, cranes parked for months, (robots already delivered and packed in storage containers) What do you think happens to a sealed storage container that heats up in the sun then cools at night? Can you say condensation? Those going to be some wet and rusty robots.

Look at GM's battery plant for comparison, everything in stages, 50% of the factory is insulated and roofed, so they can start installing systems, while the other half of the factory is being finished.

 

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Discussion Starter · #32 ·
Haha, scaling back your expectations? You told me first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July, I feel mean to pick on you because clearly you have no idea what you are looking at, and I have been a general contractor for 30 years and know how to assess progress on a construction site. This is extremely slow, and Tesla is way over their head... Just look at the site staging, cranes parked for months, (robots already delivered and packed in storage containers) What do you think happens to a sealed storage container that heats up in the sun then cools at night? Can you say condensation? Those going to be some wet and rusty robots.
Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
 

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Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Easy on the language, as of January 2021, all Model Y's are assembled in the Tents (it shows in mine VIN 95XXX). Lets look at Tesla recent commitments, Elon said at Autonomy day FSD would be ready by the end of 2019, then it was the end of 2020, then 2021... Well, Keep moving the targets it's bound to be right sooner or later.

On the Austin Plant, or anything Tesla, you have to watch closely to see what is really going on. In China from start of construction to dried in (roofing and exterior cladding complete) for both the Model 3 and Y factory was 5 months, Austin, we are 8 1/2 months and still working on the foundation, some of which has been torn out and replaced with much larger footings, 15 large cranes on site but only 5 being used daily (that is expensive), steel work and framing is about 40% On the model Y factory which is the half of the building closest to the power lines the framing is up for the stamping hall, giga press hall, the body shop, and the paint shop, the final assembly hall has not even started foundation yet, and you say production in <75 days? (another tent maybe?). Dreams!!! None of the structure is insulated or roofed yet, and no exterior cladding has been installed. A typical paint shop takes 6 months to fit out after the structure is built and dried in, and is the most time consuming part of the plant set up (that is what it takes GM, and Tesla in China). I see paint shop parts have also been delivered to the site, but the building is nowhere near ready. Stacking all this fit out work on top of the structural work just creates chaos for everyone working there, and makes it far more dangerous. When talking timelines I talk realistic construction schedules, and you talk fanboy timelines. Is Tesla still the worlds largest EV maker? not for long, VW Group is catching them fast.

BTW, the Giga Berlin site is not much better than Giga Texas, and now 13 months into construction, and has quite a few problems of its own. You can tell the schedule is off by what is delivered, and on what schedule. Lots of out of sequence work going on. They have a giga press installed with no roof, nothing painted, no climate control. Typically you want to finish the structure, roof, and cladding, paint the inside, then start fitting it out. Painting later is much more time consuming, bad for the equipment, and expensive. The worst part is the tooling is the expensive part of the plant, it is irresponsible capital management to have the expensive equipment delivered one minute before you are ready.

I am going to link a video for you so you can see what the inside of a modern paint shop looks like and how many extremely complex systems need to be assembled and gotten working, its quite complex, not some software code modification.

 

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Elon was asked about Cybertruck production in todays earnings call, he said "If we are lucky, we might deliver a few at the very end of 2021, but scale production will be in 2022" Do you still think they are coming by July 4th?

Another surprise in the earnings call, revised S and X still use 18650 battery cell format. This really caught me off guard, I thought it would be 2170

A question was also asked what is 4680 cell production now, which lead to a long pause, and they did not want to answer, and said they think they are still somewhere on the S curve. I think this translates to they are not off to a fast start with the 4680.

Another question was asked when Tesla will reach the 50% lower battery cost, "about 3-4 years"
 

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Speaking of battery for this cybertruck which is composed of several data to cross too many linear beams, I believe for the chassis concerning the tectonic plate with all the components at its disposal. Remember, the Hummer is a war machine. Defense secret. With much more power I think nothing will be able to stop it, if necessary we can always add more to the optional values. We can always visit customers to harmonize it. The engine is already and really sufficient.
 

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Easy on the language, as of January 2021, all Model Y's are assembled in the Tents (it shows in mine VIN 95XXX). Lets look at Tesla recent commitments, Elon said at Autonomy day FSD would be ready by the end of 2019, then it was the end of 2020, then 2021... Well, Keep moving the targets it's bound to be right sooner or later.

On the Austin Plant, or anything Tesla, you have to watch closely to see what is really going on. In China from start of construction to dried in (roofing and exterior cladding complete) for both the Model 3 and Y factory was 5 months, Austin, we are 8 1/2 months and still working on the foundation, some of which has been torn out and replaced with much larger footings, 15 large cranes on site but only 5 being used daily (that is expensive), steel work and framing is about 40% On the model Y factory which is the half of the building closest to the power lines the framing is up for the stamping hall, giga press hall, the body shop, and the paint shop, the final assembly hall has not even started foundation yet, and you say production in <75 days? (another tent maybe?). Dreams!!! None of the structure is insulated or roofed yet, and no exterior cladding has been installed. A typical paint shop takes 6 months to fit out after the structure is built and dried in, and is the most time consuming part of the plant set up (that is what it takes GM, and Tesla in China). I see paint shop parts have also been delivered to the site, but the building is nowhere near ready. Stacking all this fit out work on top of the structural work just creates chaos for everyone working there, and makes it far more dangerous. When talking timelines I talk realistic construction schedules, and you talk fanboy timelines. Is Tesla still the worlds largest EV maker? not for long, VW Group is catching them fast.

BTW, the Giga Berlin site is not much better than Giga Texas, and now 13 months into construction, and has quite a few problems of its own. You can tell the schedule is off by what is delivered, and on what schedule. Lots of out of sequence work going on. They have a giga press installed with no roof, nothing painted, no climate control. Typically you want to finish the structure, roof, and cladding, paint the inside, then start fitting it out. Painting later is much more time consuming, bad for the equipment, and expensive. The worst part is the tooling is the expensive part of the plant, it is irresponsible capital management to have the expensive equipment delivered one minute before you are ready.

I am going to link a video for you so you can see what the inside of a modern paint shop looks like and how many extremely complex systems need to be assembled and gotten working, its quite complex, not some software code modification.

Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Well, another Tesla quarterly report, and still no mention of Cybertruck production or factory, they actually post several up the minute pictures of Austin, and specifically say "MODEL Y FACTORY" You still thinking 4th of July? They going to whip one out in the janitors closet at Fremont? These photos just released and chart released an hour ago, this is the latest official guidance. No mention of action on Cybertruck... Elon musk also said today on the earnings call Tesla is 12-18 months from scale production on 4680 cells, that sounds like there will be a Cybertruck delay. Elon also said today, the pilot line in Fremont has built No, NONE, ZERO cells for car production yet, still in the process of commissioning different equipment.

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Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Looks like Elon's solidness at hitting completion targets is wavering and well Cybertruck is delayed... Again... Like I said, they dots have the tech to get it done, no 4680 batteries. I think I heard someone try to tell you that last year, but you knew better... Go back and read your first rebuke of me, its not aging well...

 
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