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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Hi Everyone, I've lurked here a bit and figured I'd register and join the party before all the info starts flowing. I have a Hummer EV3x reservation and on the wait-list for Edition 1. I've owned lots of trucks, managed fleets of trucks, love cars. I've been a Tesla owner for over 4 years and really like where EVs are headed. While I have a reservation for the Cybertruck, and I like a lot of what it promises, I just feel the Hummer EV is shaping up to be more of what I want.

While I'm at it, do we have interior dimensions for the pickup bed yet? I don't think I've seen anything specific...
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Hi guys!

I bought a Tesla Model X P90D in 2016. It was an excellent car for a bit over 4 years. Ended up selling it in July because it just seemed the value was dropping quite fast. Our early VIN Model X had the old v1 Auto Pilot hardware and MCU1 computer and no ability to upgrade anything. We had ordered a Model Y long ago and picked that up at the end of June with the plan of getting a CyberTruck next.

The Cybertruck is a very bipolar concept for me. I really admire it from an engineering and manufacturing efficiency perspective. But I'm struggling with the looks to some extent and some aspects seem to sacrifice certain utility in favor of manufacturing efficiency or alternate use cases. Like the sloped bedsides... It makes certain racking and equipment mounting cases very difficult, but it adds a lot of structural strength to the design, simplifies construction and we gain bedside tool/ storage compartments. Ultimately it comes down to Tesla literally designing a truck that could be autonomously assembled on Mars. What better way to subsidize that dream than to mass produce and sell a million of them here first...

The Hummer EV just appeals to me a lot more at the moment. I love how the roof panels are fully removable to open it up. It seems to tick all the boxes of what I want for my personal truck. Looks like it's going to compare very favorably to Cybertruck in performance and capability. I think the Hummer will fall short on battery capacity/ efficiency vs. Cybertruck, but Tesla has a huge head start with their battery tech. Tesla's design is also much cheaper to produce, allowing them to make batteries a larger percentage of the overall cost. Pricing on the Hummer is a bit out there, but still less than what I paid for that Model X four years ago and so much more capable. If I can get 300+ miles on a charge with the Hummer, I'm good.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
I am curious to see if Tesla can meet the Cybertruck claims of if the program collects dust on the shelf ala Semi and Roadster waiting for the technology to catch up with the claims. To date Tesla has not even started any construction on a factory to build Cybertruck and in the latest earnings release Elon said they are still trying to figure out the production system. He said its likely Cybertruck will not see volume production until sometime in 2022, and "even that had schedule risk". The 500 miles of range for $70K is going to be a tough nut to crack, and when you look at Teslas current vehicles I cannot see a clear path to production. I mean Cybertruck price is only 10K more then Model Y performance, but the specs blow Model Y performance away (in every way), in a vehicle that will be much heavier, less aerodynamic, and with promised capabilities Tesla has never produced.
Umm... Cybertruck will be built at the new Gigafactory Texas location. Projected completion is in May and Cybertruck production line is anticipated to start up shortly after. There are two Cybertruck prototypes in public existence. Elon is driving one personally. It’s the one that appeared on Jay Leno’s Garage and has made other public appearances with Elon. The other is making appearances all over California as well — was on display a few months ago at the Peterson Automotive Museum. That prototype is supposedly heading to Texas shortly, if not there already, to increase awareness as the factory is constructed.

I agree that their $70K price tag is going to be a hard target to hit, but I also don’t doubt them. They’ve been surprisingly good at hitting their production goals and specifications. For now, other than a couple prototypes driving around and numbers on paper, we don’t know much. However, enthusiasts (stalkers) have followed the prototypes making > 400 mile trips between the factory and southern CA. So we know they can hit 400+ mile range with them as they are.

One big factor in the cost of Cybertruck is the construction. Folding the body out of stainless steel saves a huge amount of the cost and assembly time. It seems we can expect a similar production methodology for a smaller car. Most likely Platform 4 (Model 4), which has a target price of under $16,000.

I think even with construction efficiencies and the factory staying on schedule, the first customers won’t see their Cybertruck until late next year. And as you said, Elon is not expecting volume production until 2022. Elon has learned his lesson about what to say in those quarterly meetings. For the past 18 months or so, he’s been under-promising and over-delivering.
 

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Discussion Starter · #10 ·
How good do you think GM's Ultium battery tech is compared to Tesla's?
We won’t know until GM starts shipping vehicles with those batteries in them. While Tesla has a huge head start, they also allow their tech to be licensed, along with the joint patents they hold with Panasonic and CATL. And I know GM has invested heavily in many industry segments to build their Ultium program.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
Actually the construction that is started for Tesla in Austin TX is for Model Y production, and not for Cybertruck or Semi. Please refer to the transcript from Tesla's last earnings call where Elon discussed this, and or refer to Teslas 10Q SEC filing, where they list Austin factory construction for Model Y, and they list Austin Cybertruck as "in development"

I never count Tesla out as they have very smart engineers working there. Some things on our Model Y are great, and other things really make you roll your eyes.
Earnings calls are not a place for news or the roadmap of things to come. GigaTexas was hardly mentioned, the earnings call focused on active production and earnings.

Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced in March.

Which earnings call are you referring to? While the earnings call isn’t really for future product details, it was all clearly talked about on October 22nd. Here’s part of Elon’s response to the first question on Cybertruck production,
“And yes, it's cool. Like it's going to be made in Austin. So it's kind of dependent on completing that factory. And there are obviously new technologies with the high hardness kind of armored exoskeleton.
This is — it's never been done before, so there'll probably be some challenges along the way. And obviously, something that's extremely high hardness and difficult to scratch or dent is also difficult to form. So there's manufacturing challenges there. That's why it's so cleaner.
Although it also looks good, I think, from a cleaner standpoint. Yes. If all goes well, we'll be able to do some Cybertruck deliveries toward the end of next year, yes. So it's difficult to predict.
I would say there's probably a lot of deliveries in '22 and some deliveries toward the end of next year if things go well.”

They are adding a Model Y production line at the Austin factory as well as battery pack assembly. As I sad above, Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced back in March. The 10-Q SEC filing would be very unlikely to mention Cybertruck in any capacity other than in-development. In the SEC filings that mention the Model Y prior to the assembly line starting up, it was always “in-development”. These are intended to be momentary snapshots, not a roadmap.

There is also a lot that gets said outside of earnings calls. It has been stated by Elon and other Tesla management on many occasions that Cybertruck production is their first priority at the Austin factory. We keep getting little teasers about refinements and changes to Cybertruck’s design. When do we get to see it? “Soon” is the operative word, however I bet we don’t see it until they call “pencils down” and turn on the assembly line to crank out the first mules. Pack assembly is probably what will be brought online first as the rest can’t happen without it. ...I’d be willing to bet the first Cybertruck rolls off the line in time for 4th of July.

Agree on the Model Y in terms of some things make you roll your eyes. Same with the Model X we owned. They’re overall great cars, with a few questionable design elements. It’s obvious they rely too much on their virtual modeling and don’t explore real world prototype variations much before actually going to production.

Anyway, I’m not here to argue, nor am I a shill for Tesla. I am a Tesla shareholder, but I’m also an investor in Rivian and own shares in GMC and Ford. I’m here because I really like what GM has done here with the electric Hummer revival and I think they have a winning product on their hands. True competition in the market fosters innovation and we all benefit from that.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
Hehe. Elon addressed that email. A couple senior managers at California SC locations took it upon themselves to do a year end marketing push. Delivery estimates in the email are in no way official. He is “pleased with the level of progress at TeraFactory Austin.” Did not offer any further clarification or info. I’m still fully confident we’ll see the first test mules and mannequins off the line this summer.

I do think initial deliveries by the end of 2021 is optimistic. That’s operating on the assumption nothing goes wrong or the test mule fleet doesn’t turn up something that needs to be re-engineered. Two hand-built prototypes at the moment can’t fully explore what will happen during the assembly line process or deliver the amount of data they will acquire once test builds begin.

I keep hoping more videos and info will pop up here regarding the Hummer. Supposedly it’s driving all around the factory now for the past week or so.
 

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Discussion Starter · #17 ·
I’ve seen Elon’s response posted in a couple discussion groups. Perhaps it didn’t go out publicly on Twitter and he was responding to someone who asked. The email only went to a handful of reservation holders in California, yet triggered the typical overzealous coverage from Electrek and Teslarati.

Elon has always said that Tesla stock is overvalued. Much to the dismay of us shareholders...

I have a good source about the Hummer prototype(s). And yeah, not factory, but the Milford proving grounds. True to their word, GM is apparently driving one now with no camouflage. Hoping for pics/ videos to pop up soon. And who knows what sort of info will leak out and what the actual capabilities are of a prototype that’s driving. We’ve seen the reveal truck go from immobile to somewhat drivable in some of the YouTube videos. Have not seen it drive at speed...
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
Haha. A lot has changed in the last 2 months since my post. I do think we’ll see more production prototypes this summer when they’re installing and tuning the production line equipment. Based on comments over the last couple weeks, it seems confirmed that we can expect more Cybertruck design changes and the new design elements and other production/ supply considerations are now more of an impact on the scheduling than the factory construction.

4680 cell production and battery cost reductions have been an ambiguous target since their announcements. The major improvements in battery efficiency and cost were said to be a few years out when they had battery day. 3-4 years according to this earnings call... Yeah, so not shocking, but also not what I was hoping to hear.

New Model S and X refresh with tri-motor and new interiors look nice. I’m kinda wishing I would have held my 2016 X a while longer, skipped the Y and got the X refresh. The Y is a good car. In many ways a great car. But the X is better in most every way. And a lot more expensive.
 

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Discussion Starter · #22 ·
They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
 

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Discussion Starter · #28 ·
My thoughts on the Taycan are pretty similar. Acceleration of my brother's 2019 performance Model S is very similar to the "Turbo" Taycan I drove, but the Taycan feels more aggressive as speed climbs north of 70mph and it offered a higher top speed that I was not able to push to. The suspension and handling is where the Taycan really shines. And of course, less minimalistic interior with better overall fit and finish. And you get Porsche's classic styling. Not to say I don't appreciate a lot of what Tesla has done with their styling of the Model S. I think Tesla has some really clean design language, but at times gives way to minimalism more than it should or tries to solve a problem no one has -- falcon doors on the Model X for example. Owned our Model X for over 4 years and while doors were fun and did on occasion serve to be quite practical, they were not as utilitarian on a daily basis as regular doors. If I were hauling the elderly or loading bulky car seats in and out on a daily basis, the falcon doors would be amazing.

E-Tron GT will be very appealing to many, I think. It will be a more realistic competitor to the Model S and less of a sports car or even fantasy purchase for many. For my day to day use, the Model S would win out for me if I had to decide between it and a Taycan. S is more utilitarian and I could pre-order the 520+ mile range Plaid+ tri-motor S to have it later this year and still have enough left over to buy a Hummer EV vs. buying a fully spec'd Taycan Turbo.

If I were willing to dump $200K+ into a sports car, I would definitely wait to see the Tesla Roadster before making the decision. ...Unless I just had $250K burning a hole in my pocket.
 

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Discussion Starter · #30 ·
Completion of Phase I was still stated as on track for May, and that was in last week's update with initial line setup commencing immediately after. Now we don't know what they're going to start producing on that line... It seems to be somewhat cryptic and perhaps has changed a time or two, but I think they will be making batteries/ assembling packs there first. Phase II is supposed to be completed in July/August and Phase III by the end of the year.

As for CyberTruck... I really don't expect to see the first one roll off the line until the end of the year, maybe not even until next year. We're supposed to see the final version sometime in Q2.... Some of Elon's tweets have made it sound like not much has changed while others indicate quite a bit has. I think it's going to keep a lot of the same look, especially to the front end. More reliance on cast elements, something about a bulkhead structure. Possibility of "going topless" and some other vague statements that have transpired over the past several months. Yeah, I don't know what to expect. I think they'll put forth a compelling product... But there's just too much about the Hummer EV I like.
 

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Discussion Starter · #32 ·
Haha, scaling back your expectations? You told me first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July, I feel mean to pick on you because clearly you have no idea what you are looking at, and I have been a general contractor for 30 years and know how to assess progress on a construction site. This is extremely slow, and Tesla is way over their head... Just look at the site staging, cranes parked for months, (robots already delivered and packed in storage containers) What do you think happens to a sealed storage container that heats up in the sun then cools at night? Can you say condensation? Those going to be some wet and rusty robots.
Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
 
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