GMC HUMMER EV Forum | HummerChat.com banner
1 - 18 of 18 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Hi Everyone, I've lurked here a bit and figured I'd register and join the party before all the info starts flowing. I have a Hummer EV3x reservation and on the wait-list for Edition 1. I've owned lots of trucks, managed fleets of trucks, love cars. I've been a Tesla owner for over 4 years and really like where EVs are headed. While I have a reservation for the Cybertruck, and I like a lot of what it promises, I just feel the Hummer EV is shaping up to be more of what I want.

While I'm at it, do we have interior dimensions for the pickup bed yet? I don't think I've seen anything specific...

Welcome to the group, I am also a former Model S, and current Model Y owner, as well as an E-Tron for a family hauler. We are defiantly into EV's around this house.

Like some of the others here, Cybertruck was not an option for me due to the looks, and I'm not a huge fan of the spartan interiors Tesla has gone to as I feel the simple controls are less convenient than more traditional interiors.

As for the bed on the Hummer EV, its a bit of a mystery, as it looks to be a molded composite bed. The length is definitely 5', but the width and volume are a bit of a mystery. I have a 2020 GMC 2500HD Denali for work, and the bed in that is 52" wide at the wheel wells, and 71" wide fore and aft of the wheel wells, although that is a steel bed, so likely irrelevant.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Hi guys!

I bought a Tesla Model X P90D in 2016. It was an excellent car for a bit over 4 years. Ended up selling it in July because it just seemed the value was dropping quite fast. Our early VIN Model X had the old v1 Auto Pilot hardware and MCU1 computer and no ability to upgrade anything. We had ordered a Model Y long ago and picked that up at the end of June with the plan of getting a CyberTruck next.

The Cybertruck is a very bipolar concept for me. I really admire it from an engineering and manufacturing efficiency perspective. But I'm struggling with the looks to some extent and some aspects seem to sacrifice certain utility in favor of manufacturing efficiency or alternate use cases. Like the sloped bedsides... It makes certain racking and equipment mounting cases very difficult, but it adds a lot of structural strength to the design, simplifies construction and we gain bedside tool/ storage compartments. Ultimately it comes down to Tesla literally designing a truck that could be autonomously assembled on Mars. What better way to subsidize that dream than to mass produce and sell a million of them here first...

The Hummer EV just appeals to me a lot more at the moment. I love how the roof panels are fully removable to open it up. It seems to tick all the boxes of what I want for my personal truck. Looks like it's going to compare very favorably to Cybertruck in performance and capability. I think the Hummer will fall short on battery capacity/ efficiency vs. Cybertruck, but Tesla has a huge head start with their battery tech. Tesla's design is also much cheaper to produce, allowing them to make batteries a larger percentage of the overall cost. Pricing on the Hummer is a bit out there, but still less than what I paid for that Model X four years ago and so much more capable. If I can get 300+ miles on a charge with the Hummer, I'm good.
I am curious to see if Tesla can meet the Cybertruck claims of if the program collects dust on the shelf ala Semi and Roadster waiting for the technology to catch up with the claims. To date Tesla has not even started any construction on a factory to build Cybertruck and in the latest earnings release Elon said they are still trying to figure out the production system. He said its likely Cybertruck will not see volume production until sometime in 2022, and "even that had schedule risk". The 500 miles of range for $70K is going to be a tough nut to crack, and when you look at Teslas current vehicles I cannot see a clear path to production. I mean Cybertruck price is only 10K more then Model Y performance, but the specs blow Model Y performance away (in every way), in a vehicle that will be much heavier, less aerodynamic, and with promised capabilities Tesla has never produced.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Umm... Cybertruck will be built at the new Gigafactory Texas location. Projected completion is in May and Cybertruck production line is anticipated to start up shortly after. There are two Cybertruck prototypes in public existence. Elon is driving one personally. It’s the one that appeared on Jay Leno’s Garage and has made other public appearances with Elon. The other is making appearances all over California as well — was on display a few months ago at the Peterson Automotive Museum. That prototype is supposedly heading to Texas shortly, if not there already, to increase awareness as the factory is constructed.

I agree that their $70K price tag is going to be a hard target to hit, but I also don’t doubt them. They’ve been surprisingly good at hitting their production goals and specifications. For now, other than a couple prototypes driving around and numbers on paper, we don’t know much. However, enthusiasts (stalkers) have followed the prototypes making > 400 mile trips between the factory and southern CA. So we know they can hit 400+ mile range with them as they are.

One big factor in the cost of Cybertruck is the construction. Folding the body out of stainless steel saves a huge amount of the cost and assembly time. It seems we can expect a similar production methodology for a smaller car. Most likely Platform 4 (Model 4), which has a target price of under $16,000.

I think even with construction efficiencies and the factory staying on schedule, the first customers won’t see their Cybertruck until late next year. And as you said, Elon is not expecting volume production until 2022. Elon has learned his lesson about what to say in those quarterly meetings. For the past 18 months or so, he’s been under-promising and over-delivering.

Actually the construction that is started for Tesla in Austin TX is for Model Y production, and not for Cybertruck or Semi. Please refer to the transcript from Tesla's last earnings call where Elon discussed this, and or refer to Teslas 10Q SEC filing, where they list Austin factory construction for Model Y, and they list Austin Cybertruck as "in development"

I never count Tesla out as they have very smart engineers working there. Some things on our Model Y are great, and other things really make you roll your eyes.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Earnings calls are not a place for news or the roadmap of things to come. GigaTexas was hardly mentioned, the earnings call focused on active production and earnings.

Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced in March.

Which earnings call are you referring to? While the earnings call isn’t really for future product details, it was all clearly talked about on October 22nd. Here’s part of Elon’s response to the first question on Cybertruck production,
“And yes, it's cool. Like it's going to be made in Austin. So it's kind of dependent on completing that factory. And there are obviously new technologies with the high hardness kind of armored exoskeleton.
This is — it's never been done before, so there'll probably be some challenges along the way. And obviously, something that's extremely high hardness and difficult to scratch or dent is also difficult to form. So there's manufacturing challenges there. That's why it's so cleaner.
Although it also looks good, I think, from a cleaner standpoint. Yes. If all goes well, we'll be able to do some Cybertruck deliveries toward the end of next year, yes. So it's difficult to predict.
I would say there's probably a lot of deliveries in '22 and some deliveries toward the end of next year if things go well.”

They are adding a Model Y production line at the Austin factory as well as battery pack assembly. As I sad above, Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced back in March. The 10-Q SEC filing would be very unlikely to mention Cybertruck in any capacity other than in-development. In the SEC filings that mention the Model Y prior to the assembly line starting up, it was always “in-development”. These are intended to be momentary snapshots, not a roadmap.

There is also a lot that gets said outside of earnings calls. It has been stated by Elon and other Tesla management on many occasions that Cybertruck production is their first priority at the Austin factory. We keep getting little teasers about refinements and changes to Cybertruck’s design. When do we get to see it? “Soon” is the operative word, however I bet we don’t see it until they call “pencils down” and turn on the assembly line to crank out the first mules. Pack assembly is probably what will be brought online first as the rest can’t happen without it. ...I’d be willing to bet the first Cybertruck rolls off the line in time for 4th of July.

Agree on the Model Y in terms of some things make you roll your eyes. Same with the Model X we owned. They’re overall great cars, with a few questionable design elements. It’s obvious they rely too much on their virtual modeling and don’t explore real world prototype variations much before actually going to production.

Anyway, I’m not here to argue, nor am I a shill for Tesla. I am a Tesla shareholder, but I’m also an investor in Rivian and own shares in GMC and Ford. I’m here because I really like what GM has done here with the electric Hummer revival and I think they have a winning product on their hands. True competition in the market fosters innovation and we all benefit from that.
Ya, We can agree on GM did a good job on the Hummer EV, and GM is on a roll from a design and product launch prospective. Cybertruck is not interesting to me, we can just agree to disagree about SOP on the that project. These companies will do what they are going to do, let's debate when they roll it out and we have facts to work with?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Earnings calls are not a place for news or the roadmap of things to come. GigaTexas was hardly mentioned, the earnings call focused on active production and earnings.

Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced in March.

Which earnings call are you referring to? While the earnings call isn’t really for future product details, it was all clearly talked about on October 22nd. Here’s part of Elon’s response to the first question on Cybertruck production,
“And yes, it's cool. Like it's going to be made in Austin. So it's kind of dependent on completing that factory. And there are obviously new technologies with the high hardness kind of armored exoskeleton.
This is — it's never been done before, so there'll probably be some challenges along the way. And obviously, something that's extremely high hardness and difficult to scratch or dent is also difficult to form. So there's manufacturing challenges there. That's why it's so cleaner.
Although it also looks good, I think, from a cleaner standpoint. Yes. If all goes well, we'll be able to do some Cybertruck deliveries toward the end of next year, yes. So it's difficult to predict.
I would say there's probably a lot of deliveries in '22 and some deliveries toward the end of next year if things go well.”

They are adding a Model Y production line at the Austin factory as well as battery pack assembly. As I sad above, Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced back in March. The 10-Q SEC filing would be very unlikely to mention Cybertruck in any capacity other than in-development. In the SEC filings that mention the Model Y prior to the assembly line starting up, it was always “in-development”. These are intended to be momentary snapshots, not a roadmap.

There is also a lot that gets said outside of earnings calls. It has been stated by Elon and other Tesla management on many occasions that Cybertruck production is their first priority at the Austin factory. We keep getting little teasers about refinements and changes to Cybertruck’s design. When do we get to see it? “Soon” is the operative word, however I bet we don’t see it until they call “pencils down” and turn on the assembly line to crank out the first mules. Pack assembly is probably what will be brought online first as the rest can’t happen without it. ...I’d be willing to bet the first Cybertruck rolls off the line in time for 4th of July.

Agree on the Model Y in terms of some things make you roll your eyes. Same with the Model X we owned. They’re overall great cars, with a few questionable design elements. It’s obvious they rely too much on their virtual modeling and don’t explore real world prototype variations much before actually going to production.

Anyway, I’m not here to argue, nor am I a shill for Tesla. I am a Tesla shareholder, but I’m also an investor in Rivian and own shares in GMC and Ford. I’m here because I really like what GM has done here with the electric Hummer revival and I think they have a winning product on their hands. True competition in the market fosters innovation and we all benefit from that.
Well Tesla has all but confirmed Cybertruck will be late, Now an official email from Tesla to Cybertruck reservation holders says production start late 2021, deliveries start in 2022... So much for your prediction of production by 4th of July 2021.


"The dual and tri-motor configurations are currently scheduled to begin production in late 2021 with delivery projected to take place in early 2022".
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Hehe. Elon addressed that email. A couple senior managers at California SC locations took it upon themselves to do a year end marketing push. Delivery estimates in the email are in no way official. He is “pleased with the level of progress at TeraFactory Austin.” Did not offer any further clarification or info. I’m still fully confident we’ll see the first test mules and mannequins off the line this summer.

I do think initial deliveries by the end of 2021 is optimistic. That’s operating on the assumption nothing goes wrong or the test mule fleet doesn’t turn up something that needs to be re-engineered. Two hand-built prototypes at the moment can’t fully explore what will happen during the assembly line process or deliver the amount of data they will acquire once test builds begin.

I keep hoping more videos and info will pop up here regarding the Hummer. Supposedly it’s driving all around the factory now for the past week or so.
Where did Elon Musk address that Email? I do not see anything public, but he did sent out another email today with an interesting quote...

"When looking at our actual profitability, it is very low at around 1% for the past year. Investors are giving us a lot of credit for future profits, but if, at any point, they conclude that’s not going to happen, our stock will immediately get crushed like a soufflé under a sledgehammer!"

I agree fully with Elon's take on that...


Where do you see the Hummer EV testing around the factory? What factory?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
I’ve seen Elon’s response posted in a couple discussion groups. Perhaps it didn’t go out publicly on Twitter and he was responding to someone who asked. The email only went to a handful of reservation holders in California, yet triggered the typical overzealous coverage from Electrek and Teslarati.

Elon has always said that Tesla stock is overvalued. Much to the dismay of us shareholders...

I have a good source about the Hummer prototype(s). And yeah, not factory, but the Milford proving grounds. True to their word, GM is apparently driving one now with no camouflage. Hoping for pics/ videos to pop up soon. And who knows what sort of info will leak out and what the actual capabilities are of a prototype that’s driving. We’ve seen the reveal truck go from immobile to somewhat drivable in some of the YouTube videos. Have not seen it drive at speed...
Interesting, Which discussion groups did Elon post in? Do you have a link? Everyone I know with a Cybertruck reservation in CA got the email. From San Diego to Napa, all of them!

As for the Hummer prototypes at Milford, they are not there yet. There are however several Ultium test mules which have been running there since April and a couple even earlier than that. I would think the production prototypes of the Hummer EV are being built in Warren, at a part of the Tech Center that does work on the production system for new vehicles. They will build the prototypes as close to the final production system / tooling as they can (especially the structure / body, electrical,HVAC, etc). This build has to be a very careful process as any differences between the production prototypes and the actual production models can invalidate the testing program. These babies will likely go from Warren to Milford at night, and /or in enclosed trailers. You will see them in groups of 3 or more. They will likely undergo some initial testing at Milford, and then head to Kapuskasing for winter certification sometime in February-March (that might be the place to look for the first public spy shots). It's highly unlikely photos will leak out of Milford, and even more unlikely GM will test brand new models on public roads in the beginning (that is just a no no, remember Tesla's broke down roadster some years ago?). I have never seen GM run a certification program on such a tight schedule, so it will be interesting to see where they "make up time" once the vehicles are in test. I am sure one of the early builds will be headed for the 4 post shaker for durability testing. It would be cool to get some of that video.

As for the show truck being mobile, it has always been mobile, as it was originally planned to be driven on stage in a May reveal, but COVID changed those plans. Show vehicle are built with prototype parts some of which do not have the durability or certification for high speed operations. I would think the Hummer show truck is limited to less than 10 MPH, as its purpose is to just roll out on stage, and show off the style and scale of the project, and not the performance.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Earnings calls are not a place for news or the roadmap of things to come. GigaTexas was hardly mentioned, the earnings call focused on active production and earnings.

Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced in March.

Which earnings call are you referring to? While the earnings call isn’t really for future product details, it was all clearly talked about on October 22nd. Here’s part of Elon’s response to the first question on Cybertruck production,
“And yes, it's cool. Like it's going to be made in Austin. So it's kind of dependent on completing that factory. And there are obviously new technologies with the high hardness kind of armored exoskeleton.
This is — it's never been done before, so there'll probably be some challenges along the way. And obviously, something that's extremely high hardness and difficult to scratch or dent is also difficult to form. So there's manufacturing challenges there. That's why it's so cleaner.
Although it also looks good, I think, from a cleaner standpoint. Yes. If all goes well, we'll be able to do some Cybertruck deliveries toward the end of next year, yes. So it's difficult to predict.
I would say there's probably a lot of deliveries in '22 and some deliveries toward the end of next year if things go well.”

They are adding a Model Y production line at the Austin factory as well as battery pack assembly. As I sad above, Cybertruck production at the Austin factory was formally announced back in March. The 10-Q SEC filing would be very unlikely to mention Cybertruck in any capacity other than in-development. In the SEC filings that mention the Model Y prior to the assembly line starting up, it was always “in-development”. These are intended to be momentary snapshots, not a roadmap.

There is also a lot that gets said outside of earnings calls. It has been stated by Elon and other Tesla management on many occasions that Cybertruck production is their first priority at the Austin factory. We keep getting little teasers about refinements and changes to Cybertruck’s design. When do we get to see it? “Soon” is the operative word, however I bet we don’t see it until they call “pencils down” and turn on the assembly line to crank out the first mules. Pack assembly is probably what will be brought online first as the rest can’t happen without it. ...I’d be willing to bet the first Cybertruck rolls off the line in time for 4th of July.

Agree on the Model Y in terms of some things make you roll your eyes. Same with the Model X we owned. They’re overall great cars, with a few questionable design elements. It’s obvious they rely too much on their virtual modeling and don’t explore real world prototype variations much before actually going to production.

Anyway, I’m not here to argue, nor am I a shill for Tesla. I am a Tesla shareholder, but I’m also an investor in Rivian and own shares in GMC and Ford. I’m here because I really like what GM has done here with the electric Hummer revival and I think they have a winning product on their hands. True competition in the market fosters innovation and we all benefit from that.
Elon was asked about Cybertruck production in todays earnings call, he said "If we are lucky, we might deliver a few at the very end of 2021, but scale production will be in 2022" Do you still think they are coming by July 4th?

Another surprise in the earnings call, revised S and X still use 18650 battery cell format. This really caught me off guard, I thought it would be 2170

A question was also asked what is 4680 cell production now, which lead to a long pause, and they did not want to answer, and said they think they are still somewhere on the S curve. I think this translates to they are not off to a fast start with the 4680.

Another question was asked when Tesla will reach the 50% lower battery cost, "about 3-4 years"
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Haha. A lot has changed in the last 2 months since my post. I do think we’ll see more production prototypes this summer when they’re installing and tuning the production line equipment. Based on comments over the last couple weeks, it seems confirmed that we can expect more Cybertruck design changes and the new design elements and other production/ supply considerations are now more of an impact on the scheduling than the factory construction.

4680 cell production and battery cost reductions have been an ambiguous target since their announcements. The major improvements in battery efficiency and cost were said to be a few years out when they had battery day. 3-4 years according to this earnings call... Yeah, so not shocking, but also not what I was hoping to hear.

New Model S and X refresh with tri-motor and new interiors look nice. I’m kinda wishing I would have held my 2016 X a while longer, skipped the Y and got the X refresh. The Y is a good car. In many ways a great car. But the X is better in most every way. And a lot more expensive.
Yeah, it now sounds like Cybertruck will rely less on a stressed skin body, and more on structural castings, this is news too.

On Batteries it sounds like Tesla is guiding the same as GM, GM has said they will reduce battery cost 60% by 2025, and GM engineers said off the record they are gunning for 400 wh/kg cell density

I was extremely disappointed with the S refresh (it looks the same), the interior looks better (steering wheel sucks IMO), and more features to compete with E-Tron, but the range increase is disappointing, and they are sticking with the old structure/ suspension, which is long in the tooth at this point. Just putting in faster motors is not really what S and X needed. I mean X already had E-Tron massively beat in horsepower, but loses to E-Tron on the track. Handling balance is what was needed, X has more HP, and less mass, and still loses to E-Tron... hmmm... That can only mean bad engineering. S and X just have too much chassis flex, X is one of the worst modern cars I have ever seen tested in bending moments. When they cut out the roof rails for the rear doors, it killed the chassis ridgity. X and Y are not really comparable, Y has far better engineering, and an extremely stiff chassis. Y is way more fun to drive, and on a track, laughs at the model X, even the Raven X performance which has double the power loses to a base AWD Y on the track.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
They upgraded the suspension on the S and X with the 2019 ‘Raven’ refresh. It’s much better than before. That said, I’m really disappointed that they did not go all the way with the air suspension to be more dynamic or customizable for ride control. The range increase is due to the improved motors and software, the new tri-motor setup is very efficient. Hence why Cybertruck and the Hummer will be going that route as will the Tesla Roadster and others. We won’t see a significant jump in range until they move to the new batteries.

Having driven a Taycan for a day, it really puts into perspective what the Model S is and what it could be.
Looking at the specs, the range on the Plaid is less then the dual motor 412 vs 390, to be honest, there is no reason to buy the plaid, the new Model S has plenty of value at $82K. I like the changes they made on the inside (less steering wheel) and performance. Yes, the Raven suspension is better. Tesla changed suppliers on the Air Suspension to ZF on the Raven, and improved the software controls. I would almost buy the new S now, but for me, the 18650 batteries scare me, we had a friends car have thermal runaway, and I would not be able to sleep at night if it was charging, and the back seat (old model) was too cramped for a car that size. I like the interior packaging better on the Lucid, I think they did a better job with the space with the exception of the trunk opening. Just no perfect car out there. ;) 3 motor like Hummer EV with one driving each rear wheel is not more efficient than a differential in the EPA cycle, but is better at high power levels, and gives you vectored control of the wheels for performance driving.

As I understand the new Model S range increase to 412 is due to aerodynamic improvements on the new model, Cd of .208, which is amazingly slick. I look forward to driving one...

Taycan is an amazing car, the local dealer lent me his Turbo S for a day... But $210K is too rich for my blood. I can waste money on a work truck because of section 179, but not for a car.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
I haven't been inside a Taycan but from what I've read about the car the speed is otherworldly. What stood out for you guys when driving it?
First and foremost for me is the seating position, it really fits nicely, and locks you in place. You know you are sitting in something special. The second thing for me is how quiet it is while driving, Quite similar to my E-Tron, which is basically like a bank vault, makes you feel like you are in your own world. Third is the handling, and ride quality, it is soft right up to the point that you push it, and then is sucks down on rails. I do not have experience in 911's, so I cannot compare, but the way the Taycan grips the road is quite impressive. The acceleration I expected, so not a surprise there, but in a launch it feels like it deforms your face it is pulling so hard. It is an intoxicating feeling. IMO the Taycan is the best EV drivers car on the market, and nothing is close for now. I am excited to see the E-Tron GT, next week, it should be a toned down Taycan and maybe a bit more luxurious.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
I believe the seating position is the same as the 911 so that makes sense that it locks you in place. It'll be interesting to see how similar/different the e-tron GT is since it shares the same platform as the Taycan.
E-Tron GT should be a bit toned down suspension wise, and a bit more luxurious on the interior. One of my friends is counting the moments and planning to order one... My lifestyle and garage space do not allow for a sports car now, so I cannot buy one, plus I do not want to have 2 cars of the same brand, that is too homer-ish for me.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Umm... Cybertruck will be built at the new Gigafactory Texas location. Projected completion is in May and Cybertruck production line is anticipated to start up shortly after. There are two Cybertruck prototypes in public existence. Elon is driving one personally. It’s the one that appeared on Jay Leno’s Garage and has made other public appearances with Elon. The other is making appearances all over California as well — was on display a few months ago at the Peterson Automotive Museum. That prototype is supposedly heading to Texas shortly, if not there already, to increase awareness as the factory is constructed.

I agree that their $70K price tag is going to be a hard target to hit, but I also don’t doubt them. They’ve been surprisingly good at hitting their production goals and specifications. For now, other than a couple prototypes driving around and numbers on paper, we don’t know much. However, enthusiasts (stalkers) have followed the prototypes making > 400 mile trips between the factory and southern CA. So we know they can hit 400+ mile range with them as they are.

One big factor in the cost of Cybertruck is the construction. Folding the body out of stainless steel saves a huge amount of the cost and assembly time. It seems we can expect a similar production methodology for a smaller car. Most likely Platform 4 (Model 4), which has a target price of under $16,000.

I think even with construction efficiencies and the factory staying on schedule, the first customers won’t see their Cybertruck until late next year. And as you said, Elon is not expecting volume production until 2022. Elon has learned his lesson about what to say in those quarterly meetings. For the past 18 months or so, he’s been under-promising and over-delivering.
Do you still see this factory being completely in May? Hmmm, I say end of 2021, scale production late 1Q 2022. I mean it is mid March and they are not done with the foundation yet, and steel work is about 40% done. I don't see much over delivering here for over 8 1/2 months of construction, this looks quite slow, especially compared to GM's project in Lordstown that was only started a couple months earlier, GM has the steelwork done, roof 75%, and is installing production equipment and systems already.
608


 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Completion of Phase I was still stated as on track for May, and that was in last week's update with initial line setup commencing immediately after. Now we don't know what they're going to start producing on that line... It seems to be somewhat cryptic and perhaps has changed a time or two, but I think they will be making batteries/ assembling packs there first. Phase II is supposed to be completed in July/August and Phase III by the end of the year.

As for CyberTruck... I really don't expect to see the first one roll off the line until the end of the year, maybe not even until next year. We're supposed to see the final version sometime in Q2.... Some of Elon's tweets have made it sound like not much has changed while others indicate quite a bit has. I think it's going to keep a lot of the same look, especially to the front end. More reliance on cast elements, something about a bulkhead structure. Possibility of "going topless" and some other vague statements that have transpired over the past several months. Yeah, I don't know what to expect. I think they'll put forth a compelling product... But there's just too much about the Hummer EV I like.
Haha, scaling back your expectations? You told me first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July, I feel mean to pick on you because clearly you have no idea what you are looking at, and I have been a general contractor for 30 years and know how to assess progress on a construction site. This is extremely slow, and Tesla is way over their head... Just look at the site staging, cranes parked for months, (robots already delivered and packed in storage containers) What do you think happens to a sealed storage container that heats up in the sun then cools at night? Can you say condensation? Those going to be some wet and rusty robots.

Look at GM's battery plant for comparison, everything in stages, 50% of the factory is insulated and roofed, so they can start installing systems, while the other half of the factory is being finished.

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Easy on the language, as of January 2021, all Model Y's are assembled in the Tents (it shows in mine VIN 95XXX). Lets look at Tesla recent commitments, Elon said at Autonomy day FSD would be ready by the end of 2019, then it was the end of 2020, then 2021... Well, Keep moving the targets it's bound to be right sooner or later.

On the Austin Plant, or anything Tesla, you have to watch closely to see what is really going on. In China from start of construction to dried in (roofing and exterior cladding complete) for both the Model 3 and Y factory was 5 months, Austin, we are 8 1/2 months and still working on the foundation, some of which has been torn out and replaced with much larger footings, 15 large cranes on site but only 5 being used daily (that is expensive), steel work and framing is about 40% On the model Y factory which is the half of the building closest to the power lines the framing is up for the stamping hall, giga press hall, the body shop, and the paint shop, the final assembly hall has not even started foundation yet, and you say production in <75 days? (another tent maybe?). Dreams!!! None of the structure is insulated or roofed yet, and no exterior cladding has been installed. A typical paint shop takes 6 months to fit out after the structure is built and dried in, and is the most time consuming part of the plant set up (that is what it takes GM, and Tesla in China). I see paint shop parts have also been delivered to the site, but the building is nowhere near ready. Stacking all this fit out work on top of the structural work just creates chaos for everyone working there, and makes it far more dangerous. When talking timelines I talk realistic construction schedules, and you talk fanboy timelines. Is Tesla still the worlds largest EV maker? not for long, VW Group is catching them fast.

BTW, the Giga Berlin site is not much better than Giga Texas, and now 13 months into construction, and has quite a few problems of its own. You can tell the schedule is off by what is delivered, and on what schedule. Lots of out of sequence work going on. They have a giga press installed with no roof, nothing painted, no climate control. Typically you want to finish the structure, roof, and cladding, paint the inside, then start fitting it out. Painting later is much more time consuming, bad for the equipment, and expensive. The worst part is the tooling is the expensive part of the plant, it is irresponsible capital management to have the expensive equipment delivered one minute before you are ready.

I am going to link a video for you so you can see what the inside of a modern paint shop looks like and how many extremely complex systems need to be assembled and gotten working, its quite complex, not some software code modification.

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Easy on the language, as of January 2021, all Model Y's are assembled in the Tents (it shows in mine VIN 95XXX). Lets look at Tesla recent commitments, Elon said at Autonomy day FSD would be ready by the end of 2019, then it was the end of 2020, then 2021... Well, Keep moving the targets it's bound to be right sooner or later.

On the Austin Plant, or anything Tesla, you have to watch closely to see what is really going on. In China from start of construction to dried in (roofing and exterior cladding complete) for both the Model 3 and Y factory was 5 months, Austin, we are 8 1/2 months and still working on the foundation, some of which has been torn out and replaced with much larger footings, 15 large cranes on site but only 5 being used daily (that is expensive), steel work and framing is about 40% On the model Y factory which is the half of the building closest to the power lines the framing is up for the stamping hall, giga press hall, the body shop, and the paint shop, the final assembly hall has not even started foundation yet, and you say production in <75 days? (another tent maybe?). Dreams!!! None of the structure is insulated or roofed yet, and no exterior cladding has been installed. A typical paint shop takes 6 months to fit out after the structure is built and dried in, and is the most time consuming part of the plant set up (that is what it takes GM, and Tesla in China). I see paint shop parts have also been delivered to the site, but the building is nowhere near ready. Stacking all this fit out work on top of the structural work just creates chaos for everyone working there, and makes it far more dangerous. When talking timelines I talk realistic construction schedules, and you talk fanboy timelines. Is Tesla still the worlds largest EV maker? not for long, VW Group is catching them fast.

BTW, the Giga Berlin site is not much better than Giga Texas, and now 13 months into construction, and has quite a few problems of its own. You can tell the schedule is off by what is delivered, and on what schedule. Lots of out of sequence work going on. They have a giga press installed with no roof, nothing painted, no climate control. Typically you want to finish the structure, roof, and cladding, paint the inside, then start fitting it out. Painting later is much more time consuming, bad for the equipment, and expensive. The worst part is the tooling is the expensive part of the plant, it is irresponsible capital management to have the expensive equipment delivered one minute before you are ready.

I am going to link a video for you so you can see what the inside of a modern paint shop looks like and how many extremely complex systems need to be assembled and gotten working, its quite complex, not some software code modification.

Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Well, another Tesla quarterly report, and still no mention of Cybertruck production or factory, they actually post several up the minute pictures of Austin, and specifically say "MODEL Y FACTORY" You still thinking 4th of July? They going to whip one out in the janitors closet at Fremont? These photos just released and chart released an hour ago, this is the latest official guidance. No mention of action on Cybertruck... Elon musk also said today on the earnings call Tesla is 12-18 months from scale production on 4680 cells, that sounds like there will be a Cybertruck delay. Elon also said today, the pilot line in Fremont has built No, NONE, ZERO cells for car production yet, still in the process of commissioning different equipment.

779
780
781
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Looks like Elon's solidness at hitting completion targets is wavering and well Cybertruck is delayed... Again... Like I said, they dots have the tech to get it done, no 4680 batteries. I think I heard someone try to tell you that last year, but you knew better... Go back and read your first rebuke of me, its not aging well...

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,913 Posts
Not scaling back my expectations as I've never had firm expectations. I never said first Cybertruck delivery for the 4th of July... I said in this very thread that I would bet the first one rolls off the line by 4th of July. As in line tester, initial production unit, whatever you want to call it, probably destined to be a test mule or crash tester. Will Tesla accomplish that? Maybe? I would not be surprised if they do... I would not think any differently of it if they don't.

Don't go making assumptions about what I may or may not know. You know nothing about me. There are lots of things I see at the GigaTexas site, not just those you have pointed out, that are real head-scratchers. A huge contrast to what we saw of GigaBerlin construction. That said, Tesla and Elon specifically, have been rather solid at hitting their completion targets lately. I'm not going to read into what I see in the construction status as an outside observer as having any definitive meaning here. We're talking about the world's largest EV maker who still does final assembly on nearly 30% of all Model Y's in a fucking circus tent.
Well Mojo, I guess we missed that July 4th target for Cybertruck rollout and 4680 cells (not only did we not see a Cybertruck roll off the line, there is still no line, or even production prototype Cybertruck). Tesla's VP of engineering said yesterday that Cybertruck is in the Alpha prototype building phase now ("we are trying to figure out how to put it together"), which means they are just building the first real prototypes for testing, about a year behind the same phase for Hummer EV, which is now spooling up the factory for production after 100 Alpha, and Beta prototypes have been built and tested over the last 9 months. Its now extremely unlikely Tesla will make Cybertruck production in 2021, and even the first half of 2022 will be a challenge. As for the 4680 cells, well, that is not going to plan either, and Elon said many of the machines they ordered have to be heavily modified as there is problems with the process on the pilot line.

Also Berlin and Austin completion targets have also been missed by a wide margin.

Tesla earnings in Q2 were outstanding, but the stock is still underperforming the market, Tesla on the earnings call sounded too much like an automaker, and no magic... Cramer thinks Tesla has lost its touch in romancing big investors, and the company is too bloated for individual investors to carry the weight. Might be one time I agree with Cramer. I am still holding some TSLA, but not sure for how much longer, starting to seem like dead money.
 
1 - 18 of 18 Posts
This is an older thread, you may not receive a response, and could be reviving an old thread. Please consider creating a new thread.
Top