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To be fair, Santa told me to expect Christmas between March 21 and June 21. So I'm still waiting for last Christmas while you've already had Christmas and changed religions.

I do agree that complaining is a waste of time, but hey at least it's a little cathartic.
yours may be one of the ones sitting in flint, and waiting
 

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It is cathartic. What...do you want me to be so blah about the Hummer I don't give a shit when there are hiccups in an already slow production schedule? I'm excited to get one, I'm assuming anyone that takes the time to visit and post on this forum is, otherwise why even be here? It's not childish to want better communication. If you're not going to build 20k Hummers in 2022, fine, but don't just put that number out there and go radio silent without correcting yourself when it's painfully obvious that isn't happening. For someone without a Hummer EV already and no Ed1 reservation, the Hummer for all practical purposes, isn't in active production. It's in a test/pilot prototype program/beta test they're selling to a limited group you could only join if you ordered in 20-30 minute window 2 years ago. GM has an almost unfathomable hole to dig themselves out of with current Hummer EV, Lyriq, Silverado EV reservations. Not to mention with Blazer, Sierra, and Equinox reservations making that hole deeper in the near future. I get that some on here are applauding making them building 800ish Hummers in 9 months but you have to admit that they need to make more than an average THREE trucks a day to meet their 90k reservations. They'd have to double production every quarter just to fulfill reservations by 2025. A hypothetical that requires the factory even be able to support the production of 51200 Hummers in a quarter running parallel to other EVs...and that's with NO internal competition for parts, batteries, etc. When the Silverado begins production next year, it's going to cannibalize Hummer production. The Lyriq already is. I'd probably shut up and just wait patiently if there was any movement or sign of life for 3X, 2X, 2 orders but there isn't. Those of us in the 88800 behind the Ed1s just have to sit back and watch every Hummer EV dealership get a showroom queen they can't sell and took up a build slot an actual customer could have purchased. But thank god they made 5-6 trucks today, 5-6 closer, I guess. I'm going to put this prediction out there and I'd put money on it: Assuming a 80-90% conversion rate from reservations to purchases, anyone with a reservation more than halfway up the list (45k+) will never get an email or ever have the opportunity to buy a Hummer EV. It's just practical math. They oversold the lifetime production of the current model of Hummer EV. They would have to exceed the H2's first 3 years of production just to meet reservations by 2026...and the H2 was a much easier vehicle to produce. The Hummer EV will be a low priority once the other models spin up to full capacity. Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic.
 

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It is cathartic. What...do you want me to be so blah about the Hummer I don't give a shit when there are hiccups in an already slow production schedule? I'm excited to get one, I'm assuming anyone that takes the time to visit and post on this forum is, otherwise why even be here? It's not childish to want better communication. If you're not going to build 20k Hummers in 2022, fine, but don't just put that number out there and go radio silent without correcting yourself when it's painfully obvious that isn't happening. For someone without a Hummer EV already and no Ed1 reservation, the Hummer for all practical purposes, isn't in active production. It's in a test/pilot prototype program/beta test they're selling to a limited group you could only join if you ordered in 20-30 minute window 2 years ago. GM has an almost unfathomable hole to dig themselves out of with current Hummer EV, Lyriq, Silverado EV reservations. Not to mention with Blazer, Sierra, and Equinox reservations making that hole deeper in the near future. I get that some on here are applauding making them building 800ish Hummers in 9 months but you have to admit that they need to make more than an average THREE trucks a day to meet their 90k reservations. They'd have to double production every quarter just to fulfill reservations by 2025. A hypothetical that requires the factory even be able to support the production of 51200 Hummers in a quarter running parallel to other EVs...and that's with NO internal competition for parts, batteries, etc. When the Silverado begins production next year, it's going to cannibalize Hummer production. The Lyriq already is. I'd probably shut up and just wait patiently if there was any movement or sign of life for 3X, 2X, 2 orders but there isn't. Those of us in the 88800 behind the Ed1s just have to sit back and watch every Hummer EV dealership get a showroom queen they can't sell and took up a build slot an actual customer could have purchased. But thank god they made 5-6 trucks today, 5-6 closer, I guess. I'm going to put this prediction out there and I'd put money on it: Assuming a 80-90% conversion rate from reservations to purchases, anyone with a reservation more than halfway up the list (45k+) will never get an email or ever have the opportunity to buy a Hummer EV. It's just practical math. They oversold the lifetime production of the current model of Hummer EV. They would have to exceed H2 production just to meet reservations by 2026...and the H2 was a much easier vehicle to produce. The Hummer EV will be a low priority once the other models spin up to full capacity. Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic.
You really have no clue what is going on... Not worth the time to reply to an explain it.
 

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You really have no clue what is going on... Not worth the time to reply to an explain it.
You don't have to. But I'd love to hear GM's explanation to how they're going to manage a 10 fold increase in production they'd have to hit in the next two months and maintain throughout 2023 with no breaks, holidays, or downtime to make it through just 1/4th of their reservations by the time Silverado EV production begins and attempts to start fulfilling its 150,000 reservations.
 

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You don't have to. But I'd love to hear GM's explanation to how they're going to manage the 10 fold increase in production they'd have to hit in two months and maintain throughout 2023 with no breaks, holidays, or downtime to make it through just 1/4th of their reservations by the time Silverado EV production begins to start fulfilling their 150,000 reservations.
You talk like GM is new to building cars and manufacturing, and needs help to scale. GM builds on average 10000 vehicles every day in North America, managing the ramp of the Hummer and the Silverado at the same time is a cake walk. but where all your assumptions are wrong is your starting point. You are assuming GM is trying to ramp Hummer to thousands a quarter now, and I can tell you for sure, that was NEVER in the plan. GM sold a limited edition Hummer for the first year of production because the Hummer was developed on a fast schedule, some parts of the schedule can be cheated, some cannot. Tooling cannot, and the first 1200 Hummers are being built on what in the industry is called soft tooling. I can look at my Hummer and tell it was done on soft tooling, by the way the metal is stamped, it was stamped slow, and in a small press. At some point the Hummer body shop will switch over to the hard tooling, which is much faster, I assume this will be after the November shutdown, and as they prepare to launch the SUV. When they make this switch, any data from the previous 12 months is garbage as the entire production system in the body shop changes to the fully automated production equipment. The bottom line GM never planned to build more than 1200 Hummer EV's in the first year, that was the whole reason for making it a limited edition and low production, soft tooling is slow. I would guess GM is nearly done building the edition 1's and will for sure be finished before the shut down, now, you mention sharing batteries with Lyriq as being a bottleneck, It's simply not, at this point there are enough cells from Lordstown for both vehicles, and then some... GM has hundreds of HummerEV sitting in Flint, and they all have battery packs, but not delivered to customers, GM has also been delivering way out of numerical order, which tells me they are either missing parts, or have re-work to be done? Either one is possible, and the Lyriq is the same, hundreds have been built and only a handful delivered. Lyriq deliveries in China are also ramping up now.

I expect GM will deliver the rest of the ED1's in Q4 (500), and is already shipping dealers their showroom model, my dealer has theirs being prepped now for display. EV3X will likely start production after the shut down, and GM will deliver a few around Michigan to meet their guidance of Fall 2022, and I think the ramp rate will be much different after the first of the year when they are using hard tooling, but don't forget Hummer SUV starts salable production in January too. Silverado E will not start salable production in the WT model until March. RST SilveradoE in September 2023, and SierraEV in October 2023.

You are looking ahead and big backlogs and saying see, they only delivered 400 Hummers this quarter, they cannot deliver 10K, thats the wrong way to look at it and you are using your own understanding, but not what is actually going on. There are more construction contractors working daily at Zero, then there are production workers, GM is building Hummers in a little corner of the shop with a skeleton crew. That will change, GM guided employment to go from 300 to 1900 at the plant in the next 4 months.


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So what is a realistic output for the truck in 2023? 5, 10, 15, 20 thousand? I think one of the points I’m trying to make is that they cut off reservations waaaaaay past when they should have if this had always been the plan and they can’t increase production by an order of magnitude in a month. Maybe their projections assumed a conversion rate that tapers below 50% once you get into the 5 figures of production. It IS true that anything less than a 10x increase over the past quarter‘s numbers by Jan 1st will have them falling well short of a 25% dent in their reservations by the end of ‘23 which I guess you’d be the one to ask if that’s even feasible. I only took required the intro to MechE and MatE courses during my ChemE undergrad so I’m admittedly making some assumptions in poorly but not completely uninformed areas. I guess I’m just having trouble visualizing the capacity for the scale they want at the speed they need given. I get that past production isn’t a good indicator of future performance but the leap they need to make to actually follow through with reservations feels unrealistic. I’ll defer to your insight but I’m still of the opinion that i probably won’t be seeing my truck until this time next year at the earliest, assuming I’m in the first 5-10k reservations or so.
 

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So what is a realistic output for the truck in 2023? 5, 10, 15, 20 thousand? I think one of the points I’m trying to make is that they cut off reservations waaaaaay past when they should have if this had always been the plan and they can’t increase production by an order of magnitude in a month. Maybe their projections assumed a conversion rate that tapers below 50% once you get into the 5 figures of production. It IS true that anything less than a 10x increase over the past quarter‘s numbers by Jan 1st will have them falling well short of a 25% dent in their reservations by the end of ‘23 which I guess you’d be the one to ask if that’s even feasible. I only took required the intro to MechE and MatE courses during my ChemE undergrad so I’m admittedly making some assumptions in poorly but not completely uninformed areas. I guess I’m just having trouble visualizing the capacity for the scale they want at the speed they need given. I get that past production isn’t a good indicator of future performance but the leap they need to make to actually follow through with reservations feels unrealistic. I’ll defer to your insight but I’m still of the opinion that i probably won’t be seeing my truck until this time next year at the earliest, assuming I’m in the first 5-10k reservations or so.
Magna's maximum throughput for the battery trays is around 700 per day. That's just the BT1 trays, for all the Hummer, Silverado, Sierra, and Escalades. They made it sound like that ramp was going to be in the first 18 months, and they started almost a year ago now. Of course the only time I got info about it was back in April, so it was a while ago now.
 

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So what is a realistic output for the truck in 2023? 5, 10, 15, 20 thousand? I think one of the points I’m trying to make is that they cut off reservations waaaaaay past when they should have if this had always been the plan and they can’t increase production by an order of magnitude in a month. Maybe their projections assumed a conversion rate that tapers below 50% once you get into the 5 figures of production. It IS true that anything less than a 10x increase over the past quarter‘s numbers by Jan 1st will have them falling well short of a 25% dent in their reservations by the end of ‘23 which I guess you’d be the one to ask if that’s even feasible. I only took required the intro to MechE and MatE courses during my ChemE undergrad so I’m admittedly making some assumptions in poorly but not completely uninformed areas. I guess I’m just having trouble visualizing the capacity for the scale they want at the speed they need given. I get that past production isn’t a good indicator of future performance but the leap they need to make to actually follow through with reservations feels unrealistic. I’ll defer to your insight but I’m still of the opinion that i probably won’t be seeing my truck until this time next year at the earliest, assuming I’m in the first 5-10k reservations or so.
Ya, I don't think you are far off, if you are 10K down the list, I think late summer 2023 is legitimate expectation for delivery. I think peak production for Hummer SUV, and SUT will be around 40K annually, about the size of the Corvette program. I figure GM has the reservations to carry through 2023, and 2024 calendar years, and maybe into 2025 if all the reservations firm up. Remember GM's 90K reservations are SUV and SUT, so there will be 2 vehicles filling those orders in 2023.
 

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So what is a realistic output for the truck in 2023? 5, 10, 15, 20 thousand? I think one of the points I’m trying to make is that they cut off reservations waaaaaay past when they should have if this had always been the plan and they can’t increase production by an order of magnitude in a month. Maybe their projections assumed a conversion rate that tapers below 50% once you get into the 5 figures of production. It IS true that anything less than a 10x increase over the past quarter‘s numbers by Jan 1st will have them falling well short of a 25% dent in their reservations by the end of ‘23 which I guess you’d be the one to ask if that’s even feasible. I only took required the intro to MechE and MatE courses during my ChemE undergrad so I’m admittedly making some assumptions in poorly but not completely uninformed areas. I guess I’m just having trouble visualizing the capacity for the scale they want at the speed they need given. I get that past production isn’t a good indicator of future performance but the leap they need to make to actually follow through with reservations feels unrealistic. I’ll defer to your insight but I’m still of the opinion that i probably won’t be seeing my truck until this time next year at the earliest, assuming I’m in the first 5-10k reservations or so.
While 90,000 does seem like a huge number, I wonder how real that number is. That is not to say GM has not received 90,000 reservations but do we honestly think anywhere close to 90,000 orders will ultimately be placed? I think the low reservation fee is inflating the number and the conversion rate for non-Edition 1s will be significantly lower. I personally have made four reservations and only intend to make one order (either 2X or 3X SUV). I'm sure I'm not the only one who took that approach. Add in the long wait time, a global recession, and skyrocketing interest rates and suddenly a lot of people might decide a $100K supertruck isn't the best choice for them. I could, of course, be entirely wrong but I think GM factored all of this into determining when to cut off reservations.

All that said, I have lowered my expectations and just hope to receive my SUV sometime in 2023 or early 2024. If it gets beyond that I'll probably start complaining.
 

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Magna's maximum throughput for the battery trays is around 700 per day. That's just the BT1 trays, for all the Hummer, Silverado, Sierra, and Escalades. They made it sound like that ramp was going to be in the first 18 months, and they started almost a year ago now. Of course the only time I got info about it was back in April, so it was a while ago now.
That sounds about right, I figure Zero will build about 200K vehicles annually when it reaches full production in mid 2024.
 

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While 90,000 does seem like a huge number, I wonder how real that number is. That is not to say GM has not received 90,000 reservations but do we honestly think anywhere close to 90,000 orders will ultimately be placed? I think the low reservation fee is inflating the number and the conversion rate for non-Edition 1s will be significantly lower. I personally have made four reservations and only intend to make one order (either 2X or 3X SUV). I'm sure I'm not the only one who took that approach. Add in the long wait time, a global recession, and skyrocketing interest rates and suddenly a lot of people might decide a $100K supertruck isn't the best choice for them. I could, of course, be entirely wrong but I think GM factored all of this into determining when to cut off reservations.

All that said, I have lowered my expectations and just hope to receive my SUV sometime in 2023 or early 2024. If it gets beyond that I'll probably start complaining.
Ya, this is a good point, the close rate is high right now, but unpredictable in the future.
 

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I was thinking the same thing... I have a 3X SUT.... A 1ST Edition SUV and a SilveradoE RST... but I will only get 1.... I will also probably reserve the Sierra... I do not NEED another truck right now, because I rarely drive my personal truck as it is... I have a company truck that I drive for work and then usually any other driving that I do is with the family in my wife's SUV... So, depending on timing, I may pass all together for a few years... But, I WANT THE HUMMER BAD....
 

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My guess is that a conversion over time graph would look like an upside down bell, with a lower peak towards the end. At the very start you've got the most committed and eager. They're followed by a mix of the "why not? it's just $100" and the people that are really interested and just missed out of the first wave. Then people that reserved recently after seeing reviews and finding out the hype is real who are also eager but will they still be in 2-3 years when their number comes up. It will be interesting to watch.
 

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My guess is that a conversion over time graph would look like an upside down bell, with a lower peak towards the end. At the very start you've got the most committed and eager. They're followed by a mix of the "why not? it's just $100" and the people that are really interested and just missed out of the first wave. Then people that reserved recently after seeing reviews and finding out the hype is real who are also eager but will they still be in 2-3 years when their number comes up. It will be interesting to watch.
I know I've asked before, but when did you reserve yours?

I reserved on 06/15/21 and am SUPER curious where I am in line. I had initially thought I'd be spring/summer of 2023 for delivery, but now it's just a guess. I hope I can snag one next year still... but if not, at least I'll be getting the 2024 MY updates!
 

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I know I've asked before, but when did you reserve yours?

I reserved on 06/15/21 and am SUPER curious where I am in line. I had initially thought I'd be spring/summer of 2023 for delivery, but now it's just a guess. I hope I can snag one next year still... but if not, at least I'll be getting the 2024 MY updates!
Oct. 20th, 2020.

The best/only real data we have on reservations is this site's tracking list. If nothing else, it provides a rough trendline. A little over 500 on there. 10/20/2020 (first day) reservations are the first 85ish, mostly Ed1s. The following week gets us to 200. The following month to 222. etc.
 

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I reserved on 10/23/20, I wonder how many people didn't get the ED1, but were ahead of me. I am assuming that I am probably in the 1st 1000 (that did not get the ED1) or so. I did get a ED1 SUV (but, I do not like it as much as the SUT). I am curious just to know if there is a way to know, but I think that we are all in the dark. I have a friend who has a C8 Z06 reserved and he had mentioned to me that he knew about where he was and that he had moved up because a lot of people had dropped off, but I do not know if that is accurate or not.
 

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I reserved on 10/23/20, I wonder how many people didn't get the ED1, but were ahead of me. I am assuming that I am probably in the 1st 1000 (that did not get the ED1) or so. I did get a ED1 SUV (but, I do not like it as much as the SUT). I am curious just to know if there is a way to know, but I think that we are all in the dark. I have a friend who has a C8 Z06 reserved and he had mentioned to me that he knew about where he was and that he had moved up because a lot of people had dropped off, but I do not know if that is accurate or not.
I got my 3X (wait listed for ED1) 30 minutes in on 10/20/2020. They sold out ED1 in 10 minutes, so I am guessing on that first night, during the first hour or so they hit at least 10K reservations, if we assume at least 1200 for every 10 minutes. The web site did slow everyone down due to the crashes, but we all kept trying.

My assumption is that I am in the first 5K to 10K range.
 
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