[Carac]

Still, emails where your response to amazing demand is to stop production is funny on its face, free of context. They must have some amazing internal growth projections for production capacity considering it took them about a year to build 1,000 trucks and they have reservations for 250,000.

 

[Carac]

You are thinking small, getting the factory up to max capacity requires stoppages, that is the big picture. Every OEM incl Tesla has stoppages to make changes and updates.

I know, it's just funny in a Seinfeld'y sort of way. I keep waiting on the interminably imminent production surge to start. It just FEELS like they're trying to maintain this perception that these things are flying out of factories the way they need to, to satisfy demand...but they aren't, not even close. It's hard to stay optimistic when they still haven't delivered the first 1200 and you're one of the 90k. I'm lucky in that I should be an early 3X. I was mere minutes late for an Ed1 and still don't think I'll see my truck before this time next year. I'd love to find out I was wrong, but I'm no longer keeping my hopes up.

 

[Carac]

I guess I can only blame myself, buying into the info they were giving. Thinking Fall 2022 was an indication that's when 3X's would be in full force production and when I'd likely get mine. And GM probably thought that's where they'd be now too. But GM did mismanage expectations when they stated their expectation was to build 20k Hummer EVs this year but they've only ramped up enough to fulfill 1/20th of that which has downstream effects on delivery targets. A prediction they never recanted or updated. All we've gotten is a CEO saying "we've built 1000". I guess that's the most frustrating part. It's painfully obvious GM has been unable to meet their own expectations and that their targets HAVE changed but they've decided to keep that to themselves rather than manage expectations. I could have bought and enjoyed a Taycan GTS Sport Turismo for over a year but didn't because I knew my Hummer was "coming Fall 2022" and news like "pausing production" is just a twist of the knife....even if it's for some nebulous reason related to production.

Now the real question, will I get my truck before or after the unveiling of a production Cybertruck?

 

[Carac]

GM is partially to blame because, unless I hallucinated it, someone there as recently as this spring said they had hoped to be making 2-3k trucks a month in November and December...which isn't happening. Especially if they're still nowhere near 100 trucks a day AND shutting the plant down once more. And again, they are as tight lipped as the Manhattan project on production updates besides Bara's "1000 built" comment, so all we have to go on are statements about production that are no longer applicable and obviously pipe dreams at this point.

 

[Carac]

if it makes you feel any better, I thought when they said ED1 deliveries would begin in Fall 2021, that meant in volume and certainly more than one unit to an employee!

History repeats. I'm just not a fan of paper launches or fulfilling promises on a technicality. For instance, I think it's worse if they make a single unit to deliver in fall 2022 and say "see we weren't lying" wink. Just wait until 2023 to deliver the first customer 3X with 100 more behind it, coming off the line that day. I don't envy whoever is in charge of the project, you've got 90k trucks reserved, you're making tens of trucks a day, and in a year, you'll be splitting battery, parts, and chip supplies with the Silverado EV that has twice as many reservations, and then you're splitting with the Blazer, Equinox, Sierra EV, etc. so without some miracle, you're in a Sisyphean task.

 

[Carac]

It is cathartic. What...do you want me to be so blah about the Hummer I don't give a shit when there are hiccups in an already slow production schedule? I'm excited to get one, I'm assuming anyone that takes the time to visit and post on this forum is, otherwise why even be here? It's not childish to want better communication. If you're not going to build 20k Hummers in 2022, fine, but don't just put that number out there and go radio silent without correcting yourself when it's painfully obvious that isn't happening. For someone without a Hummer EV already and no Ed1 reservation, the Hummer for all practical purposes, isn't in active production. It's in a test/pilot prototype program/beta test they're selling to a limited group you could only join if you ordered in 20-30 minute window 2 years ago. GM has an almost unfathomable hole to dig themselves out of with current Hummer EV, Lyriq, Silverado EV reservations. Not to mention with Blazer, Sierra, and Equinox reservations making that hole deeper in the near future. I get that some on here are applauding making them building 800ish Hummers in 9 months but you have to admit that they need to make more than an average THREE trucks a day to meet their 90k reservations. They'd have to double production every quarter just to fulfill reservations by 2025. A hypothetical that requires the factory even be able to support the production of 51200 Hummers in a quarter running parallel to other EVs...and that's with NO internal competition for parts, batteries, etc. When the Silverado begins production next year, it's going to cannibalize Hummer production. The Lyriq already is. I'd probably shut up and just wait patiently if there was any movement or sign of life for 3X, 2X, 2 orders but there isn't. Those of us in the 88800 behind the Ed1s just have to sit back and watch every Hummer EV dealership get a showroom queen they can't sell and took up a build slot an actual customer could have purchased. But thank god they made 5-6 trucks today, 5-6 closer, I guess. I'm going to put this prediction out there and I'd put money on it: Assuming a 80-90% conversion rate from reservations to purchases, anyone with a reservation more than halfway up the list (45k+) will never get an email or ever have the opportunity to buy a Hummer EV. It's just practical math. They oversold the lifetime production of the current model of Hummer EV. They would have to exceed the H2's first 3 years of production just to meet reservations by 2026...and the H2 was a much easier vehicle to produce. The Hummer EV will be a low priority once the other models spin up to full capacity. Not trying to be a downer, just being realistic.

 

[Carac]

You really have no clue what is going on... Not worth the time to reply to an explain it.

You don't have to. But I'd love to hear GM's explanation to how they're going to manage a 10 fold increase in production they'd have to hit in the next two months and maintain throughout 2023 with no breaks, holidays, or downtime to make it through just 1/4th of their reservations by the time Silverado EV production begins and attempts to start fulfilling its 150,000 reservations.

 

[Carac]

So what is a realistic output for the truck in 2023? 5, 10, 15, 20 thousand? I think one of the points I’m trying to make is that they cut off reservations waaaaaay past when they should have if this had always been the plan and they can’t increase production by an order of magnitude in a month. Maybe their projections assumed a conversion rate that tapers below 50% once you get into the 5 figures of production. It IS true that anything less than a 10x increase over the past quarter‘s numbers by Jan 1st will have them falling well short of a 25% dent in their reservations by the end of ‘23 which I guess you’d be the one to ask if that’s even feasible. I only took required the intro to MechE and MatE courses during my ChemE undergrad so I’m admittedly making some assumptions in poorly but not completely uninformed areas. I guess I’m just having trouble visualizing the capacity for the scale they want at the speed they need given. I get that past production isn’t a good indicator of future performance but the leap they need to make to actually follow through with reservations feels unrealistic. I’ll defer to your insight but I’m still of the opinion that i probably won’t be seeing my truck until this time next year at the earliest, assuming I’m in the first 5-10k reservations or so.

 

[Carac]

My guess is that a conversion over time graph would look like an upside down bell, with a lower peak towards the end. At the very start you've got the most committed and eager. They're followed by a mix of the "why not? it's just $100" and the people that are really interested and just missed out of the first wave. Then people that reserved recently after seeing reviews and finding out the hype is real who are also eager but will they still be in 2-3 years when their number comes up. It will be interesting to watch.

 

[Carac]

I know I've asked before, but when did you reserve yours?

I reserved on 06/15/21 and am SUPER curious where I am in line. I had initially thought I'd be spring/summer of 2023 for delivery, but now it's just a guess. I hope I can snag one next year still... but if not, at least I'll be getting the 2024 MY updates!

Oct. 20th, 2020.

The best/only real data we have on reservations is this site's tracking list. If nothing else, it provides a rough trendline. A little over 500 on there. 10/20/2020 (first day) reservations are the first 85ish, mostly Ed1s. The following week gets us to 200. The following month to 222. etc.

 

[Carac]

Hopefully it gets resolved faster than the Bolt's issues did.

 

[Carac]

This time it isn't the batteries themselves but more the enclosure that's causing the problem.

Again, hopefully the solution is easier than having to produce, ship, and install a new, properly sealed, battery pack for the 1000+ trucks that have been built already while simultaneously rectifying the issues with trucks in active production.