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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Well its earnings time again, what should we be on the lookout for? We already know GM is going to report 2021 EBIT adjusted earnings of >$14B which is outstanding, Here are the things I am looking for...

Tesla stock took a major haircut for not executing on their new products, and not giving clear guidance, don't make that mistake, GM... Give clear guidance on Ev programs status

* Cash flow, cash flow was weak last quarter due to so many trucks stranded in built shy status (trapped inventory), we should see the other side of that and I expect at least $3B+ in Free Cash Flow as GM guided in December to have cleared over half of the inventory trucks out ($3B is my low estimate, I think the free cash flow number could be much higher)

Guidance;

  • Sales and earnings expectations for 2022? I hope to hear about supply chain strengthening, and higher production in 2022, especially in HD pickups with Oshawa now ramping to help out Flint.
  • Refresh Silverado and Sierra 1500's, hope to see production starting soon, on sale in April?
  • Hummer and Lyriq production progress update Brightdrop too
  • Sierra EV reveal date
  • Silverado and Sierra HD refresh reveal (I think this will be announced in April after the 1500's have launched, but there is a chance?)
  • Real reveal date for the Equinox and Blazer EV's
  • Other EV reveal dates
  • Bolt production re-start (this does not matter financially, but does signal GM is recovering from the fiasco)
  • Dividend, Personally I think the timing is wrong to bring back the dividend, as capital is better invested to the future, but Ford bringing their dividend back puts pressure on GM to do the same. GM can afford it, but is it money well spent long term? If they bring it back I hope to see $.25-$.40 per qtr.

 

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EPS consensus estimate is $1.16/share. I'm thinking closer to $2/share given record high ATP's and ~70% reduction in incentive spending y/y. I was in Michigan in September and saw first hand the massive stockpile of build shy heavy duty pickups near Flint assembly. It sounds like these have been finished so revenues should show up in Q4 results. Stockpiled full size SUV's were also said to have received chips. North American profit margins will be over 10% (11?). Start of regular production for the 2022 Silverado and Sierra start on February 7 in Mexico and about a month after that in the US. Guidance will be the focus of the earnings call rather than Q4 results given continued uncertainties around chip supplies. Chip shortages are currently affecting Envision production in China so any hints that production may be disrupted in the US could send the stock lower. Something I find interesting is GM will report after the bell tomorrow. In the recent past they have reported before the opening bell.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
EPS consensus estimate is $1.16/share. I'm thinking closer to $2/share given record high ATP's and ~70% reduction in incentive spending y/y. I was in Michigan in September and saw first hand the massive stockpile of build shy heavy duty pickups near Flint assembly. It sounds like these have been finished so revenues should show up in Q4 results. Stockpiled full size SUV's were also said to have received chips. North American profit margins will be over 10% (11?). Start of regular production for the 2022 Silverado and Sierra start on February 7 in Mexico and about a month after that in the US. Guidance will be the focus of the earnings call rather than Q4 results given continued uncertainties around chip supplies. Chip shortages are currently affecting Envision production in China so any hints that production may be disrupted in the US could send the stock lower. Something I find interesting is GM will report after the bell tomorrow. In the recent past they have reported before the opening bell.
They are reporting earlier then normal, and Tuesday evening, instead of Wednesday AM, I suppose they figure more like a tech company. GM also already announced Q1 earnings will be in April, instead of their typical early May. I think they are trying to be more tech like?
 
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