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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
*GM announced this morning 2 additional battery plants (locations and other info to be announced later)
*Additional EV investments
*First half 2021 EBIT adjusted significantly higher than previously guided (5 weeks ago)

 

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Great to hear. First I would assume they would want the plants located near the car plant to minimize shipping. My guess one of the first battery plant locations will be at the Fairfax plant in Kansas. The Malibu is slated to go away and the xt4 would probably move or could be killed altogether since Cadillac is supposed to go all electric. That way they can convert the existing plant to electrics and put an adjacent battery plant. Looks to me they have room there? After that, I don’t know. Obviously this is just speculation on my part…
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Great to hear. First I would assume they would want the plants located near the car plant to minimize shipping. My guess one of the first battery plant locations will be at the Fairfax plant in Kansas. The Malibu is slated to go away and the xt4 would probably move or could be killed altogether since Cadillac is supposed to go all electric. That way they can convert the existing plant to electrics and put an adjacent battery plant. Looks to me they have room there? After that, I don’t know. Obviously this is just speculation on my part…
Certainly a possibility, but looking at GM's current Ev factory commitments

Knowns,
Factory Zero Hummers, Silverado, Sierra, Escalade, Tahoe, Yukon, Cruise Origin 200K units a year capacity
150 kWh average pack size That basically uses all the Lordstown (1) capacity

CAMI BrightDrop EV 600 60K+++ units a year 150 kWh pack size 10 gWh annual battery demand??

Spring Hill Lyriq, Buick (enspire) CUV, Acura CUV Chevy (traverse sized)CUV 100K+++ units annually 100 kWh pack size 10 gWh
Spring Hill battery 30 gWh capacity (could supply Farifax EV production?

Ramon Arizpe Mexico Chevy (equinox sized) CUV, Honda global CUV, GMC CUV, Buick small CUV 150K+++ units annually 75kWh packs 10gWh?

Newly announced partnership with locomotive builder in Pennsylvania, how many gWh?

GM bought a second large parcel in Lordstown OH last year, said would talk about plans for it later ??

Speculation,

I think the next factory to convert to EV will be Lansing Grand River to build Cadillac EV sedans in 2024, but I do not know much about Farifax, one of the plants I have not ever visited.

I think one of the new battery factories will be in Lordstown OH, or surrounding area, this will supply the MI plants, Locomotives, and Ontario

The one factory for GM that is an outlier is Ramon Arizpe Mexico, will GM build a plant in the south to feed that with less logistic cost?

What about Wentzville? GM has been quietly working on that plant for 2 years, (paint and body shop) and it seems more extensive than just preparing for Colorado and Canyon refresh. I think an EV van, and mid size EV truck are in the plans, but not announced yet. Mark Reuss said something at GM battery day, specifically mentioning the mid size truck as an EV platform.
 

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Thanks for the comprehensive analysis. I had meant to look at that myself but you did it for me!

I forgot about phase two for the Lordstown being a possibility. That makes sense for the first new battery plant. You already have some of the work done, hopefully, so it could be easier and cheaper to build the second phase.

As for the second battery plant, somewhere near wentzville is certainly a possibility. I guess we will see.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Thanks for the comprehensive analysis. I had meant to look at that myself but you did it for me!

I forgot about phase two for the Lordstown being a possibility. That makes sense for the first new battery plant. You already have some of the work done, hopefully, so it could be easier and cheaper to build the second phase.

As for the second battery plant, somewhere near wentzville is certainly a possibility. I guess we will see.
No problem, as an investor, I am always trying to understand the sum of these announcements, and try to understand the map of how it all fits together.
 

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One thing I noticed in an interview with Mary Barra was a little bit of emphasis on commercial/fleet sales. That sounds like it’s partially regarding EV trucks like the Silverado but also sounded like it may include new vehicles. Maybe that would include another Brightdrop van or two with smaller sizes? The GM vans are archaic and that could possibly be included as well.

As for the Hummer, I am hoping that the new battery factories will free up more capacity to move up the timeline for the various trims? I think it’s safe to say the two latest factories mentioned today would probably not help much in that regard as they would come online too late. But possibly the Tennessee plant will help as this was not in the original Hummer plan that I know of. The Cadillac plant was originally supposed to get batteries from Ohio I would assume therefore I would think that that frees up capacity for hummers and the various trucks. I am rambling here, but more battery factories could relieve pressure enough to get some more high profit Hummers on the road sooner. At least that is my hope. 😃
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
One thing I noticed in an interview with Mary Barra was a little bit of emphasis on commercial/fleet sales. That sounds like it’s partially regarding EV trucks like the Silverado but also sounded like it may include new vehicles. Maybe that would include another Brightdrop van or two with smaller sizes? The GM vans are archaic and that could possibly be included as well.

As for the Hummer, I am hoping that the new battery factories will free up more capacity to move up the timeline for the various trims? I think it’s safe to say the two latest factories mentioned today would probably not help much in that regard as they would come online too late. But possibly the Tennessee plant will help as this was not in the original Hummer plan that I know of. The Cadillac plant was originally supposed to get batteries from Ohio I would assume therefore I would think that that frees up capacity for hummers and the various trucks. I am rambling here, but more battery factories could relieve pressure enough to get some more high profit Hummers on the road sooner. At least that is my hope. 😃
Yes, GM, and Ford's phones are ringing off the hook from the very large Fleet customers which Mary Barra repeated today. Many people were ho hum about the bright drop, but that is a huge addressable market for GM, and also new business (growth). I agree with you on the vans, I think something is going to be announced at Wentzville, and EV vans are coming. GM announced today a big 2 day Investor event scheduled for October 6 and 7, where I think they will make several new announcements. (I think first Hummer Deliveries will be right around this timeframe)

I think the Hummer versions will stick to the schedule unless sales bog down. GM wants to recover as much of their capital investment as soon as possible so we will only see the higher priced models unless sales collapse. GM also has to launch the Silverado Ev at Factory Zero in 2022, and the Lyriq, so I think they will be battery constrained as far as the eye can see. Remember First Edition Hummer Ev batteries will come from LG's Ultium pilot line in MI initially. I am not sure how fast Lordstown will ramp, but if they start in 1Q 2022, It will likely take all year to ramp up to capacity.

GM CFO was on a Deutsche Bank conference call today, and reiterated most of this.
 
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