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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
This is a very interesting article on InsideEv, I had a few takeaways about EV pickups that I think would be fun to discuss. My first takeaway is that the startups are in trouble, because when you get out of the EV nerd groups, most have never heard of Rivian, Bollinger, Lordstown, Atlis, etc... The popularity of Cybertruck does not surprise me as Elon Musk has 50 million twitter followers and carries large societal influence, also Cybertruck if it comes as shown with tough glass (kind of tough) and stainless body and unbelievable low pricing when compared to performance and capability. Now, I very much doubt we will ever see a Cybertruck that can tow 14K lbs, have 500 miles of range, goes 0-60 under 2.9 seconds, and sells for under $70K. Just looking at Tesla's other products you can see, Model S Plaid misses on all those capabilities except 0-60, and it sells for $121K, with 19" wheels, and white paint, change anything and you are at $130K.

Interesting that the Hummer EV has 12% considering it when its a high end niche vehicle, I think GM has to be happy with that number

Silverado Ev nearly matches F-150 lightning even those GM has not even rolled it out to show us, and discuss the capabilities? That is amazing, and this survey shows the traditional truck makers have an advantage, even if they are late to the EV world. What do we expect will happen when GM rolls out the real Silverado EV and hopefully matches or exceeds Ford in capabilities?

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This is a very interesting article on InsideEv, I had a few takeaways about EV pickups that I think would be fun to discuss. My first takeaway is that the startups are in trouble, because when you get out of the EV nerd groups, most have never heard of Rivian, Bollinger, Lordstown, Atlis, etc... The popularity of Cybertruck does not surprise me as Elon Musk has 50 million twitter followers and carries large societal influence, also Cybertruck if it comes as shown with tough glass (kind of tough) and stainless body and unbelievable low pricing when compared to performance and capability. Now, I very much doubt we will ever see a Cybertruck that can tow 14K lbs, have 500 miles of range, goes 0-60 under 2.9 seconds, and sells for under $70K. Just looking at Tesla's other products you can see, Model S Plaid misses on all those capabilities except 0-60, and it sells for $121K, with 19" wheels, and white paint, change anything and you are at $130K.

Interesting that the Hummer EV has 12% considering it when its a high end niche vehicle, I think GM has to be happy with that number

Silverado Ev nearly matches F-150 lightning even those GM has not even rolled it out to show us, and discuss the capabilities? That is amazing, and this survey shows the traditional truck makers have an advantage, even if they are late to the EV world. What do we expect will happen when GM rolls out the real Silverado EV and hopefully matches or exceeds Ford in capabilities?

View attachment 907

Lordstown and Bollinger don't appear to be going after the end user market and instead are focused more on utility and commercial sales. Bollinger won't even have air bags - that tells you their market target. So while I think both brands are weak, they may survive because of the niches they are targeting.

Atlis is fake and will never produce a vehicle, IMHO. So they don't count. ;-)

Rivian will sell everything they produce, and so far, they don't have a similar competitor. The F150 and Silverado are work trucks for people who think they need a work truck, and for real workman of course. Not the market Rivian is going after.

Tesla - WTH is the Cybertruck targeting anyway? The space alien who wants to haul stuff? I agree with you that the possibility they will deliver the specs promised is very low, and the design will only really attract Tesla fanboys. No normal person will by a Cybertruck. My wife would not want me to park in the driveway if I got one.

Of course the big brands have better recognition, but I think if an less known competitor can produce something compelling and unique, like Rivian, it will sell well. Of course I am a Rivian fan, but only because of what they have designed and are selling. I may change my mind if they cannot deliver, but their market segment will be very happy with it I think.

Hummer is in a class by itself, as you pointed out. The name definitely helps, but the price will mean very few will make the purchase. It is not a mass market vehicle and I think GM will sell plenty enough at that price. It sort of competes with Rivian, but it is much bigger and much bolder. And more expensive.

All that said, I think the off brands have a real shot as long as they stay true to the market segments they have targeted.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Lordstown and Bollinger don't appear to be going after the end user market and instead are focused more on utility and commercial sales. Bollinger won't even have air bags - that tells you their market target. So while I think both brands are weak, they may survive because of the niches they are targeting.

Atlis is fake and will never produce a vehicle, IMHO. So they don't count. ;-)

Rivian will sell everything they produce, and so far, they don't have a similar competitor. The F150 and Silverado are work trucks for people who think they need a work truck, and for real workman of course. Not the market Rivian is going after.

Tesla - WTH is the Cybertruck targeting anyway? The space alien who wants to haul stuff? I agree with you that the possibility they will deliver the specs promised is very low, and the design will only really attract Tesla fanboys. No normal person will by a Cybertruck. My wife would not want me to park in the driveway if I got one.

Of course the big brands have better recognition, but I think if an less known competitor can produce something compelling and unique, like Rivian, it will sell well. Of course I am a Rivian fan, but only because of what they have designed and are selling. I may change my mind if they cannot deliver, but their market segment will be very happy with it I think.

Hummer is in a class by itself, as you pointed out. The name definitely helps, but the price will mean very few will make the purchase. It is not a mass market vehicle and I think GM will sell plenty enough at that price. It sort of competes with Rivian, but it is much bigger and much bolder. And more expensive.

All that said, I think the off brands have a real shot as long as they stay true to the market segments they have targeted.
Its OK to be a Rivian fan, but for Rivian to go mainstream, and get anywhere near profitability, they need to increase their recognizability. When I look a the above chart, it seems GM is winning, they have Hummer, and Silverado, and have not even mentioned the Sierra EV except to investors which they told us they moved up the schedule 40 months on.

GM will build different versions of the Silverado and Sierra EV, They will have Denali and High Country versions, and I also expect to see a lowered Silverado EV SS which will have the Hummer powertrain in it, and be very quick.

Bigger problem for Rivian, is they have to make scale, and fast, as once production starts, losses will mount fast. Rivian has no battery production, and outsources too much of their parts. Rivian, going public at $70B (Higher then Ford) is just a joke, and poor investors are likely going to get crushed as Rivian is missing the Musk factor that Tesla has, something that should never be underestimated (IMO). I would not buy 1 penny of Rivian stock at a $70B valuation (unless they show solid global demand and profitability, just buy Ford as they own over 10% of Rivian, and have a real business to justify their valuation. I like Rivian as a company and they way they go about their business, I just wonder how many people will buy them when they are so small, and very expensive, with no service network, looks like a recipe for disaster to me.
 

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On average, Pickup customers (work and recreation) are more concerned about parts and maintenance than car buyers. Startup companies don’t have the infrastructure the major manufacturers have. Where do you have your Rivian, Bollinger, Lordstown, Atlis, etc towed to after an accident or maintenance issue? How long does it take to receive parts? Truck customers want to get THEIR vehicle back faster than car customers. I don’t think any of these EV truck startups will still be around 10 years from now.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
On average, Pickup customers (work and recreation) are more concerned about parts and maintenance than car buyers. Startup companies don’t have the infrastructure the major manufacturers have. Where do you have your Rivian, Bollinger, Lordstown, Atlis, etc towed to after an accident or maintenance issue? How long does it take to receive parts? Truck customers want to get THEIR vehicle back faster than car customers. I don’t think any of these EV truck startups will still be around 10 years from now.
On average, Pickup customers (work and recreation) are more concerned about parts and maintenance than car buyers. Startup companies don’t have the infrastructure the major manufacturers have. Where do you have your Rivian, Bollinger, Lordstown, Atlis, etc towed to after an accident or maintenance issue? How long does it take to receive parts? Truck customers want to get THEIR vehicle back faster than car customers. I don’t think any of these EV truck startups will still be around 10 years from now.
Yes, absolutely correct especially for commercial customers. My GMC dealer guarantees commercial customers to look at their trucks immediately if they are ever out of service. My experience, over a decade and a few trucks is they follow through, have not at any time had a truck down for more than a day, much better then I can say for my Kenworths with Cummins Engines. Interestingly when I bought the last round of trucks I expected the auto shift transmissions to be the reliability problem, but they have been bulletproof, its the Cummins emissions systems that are the frustration points.

Now, I do not lump Rivian in with Lordstown, Bollinger, and Atlis. I think those 3 have about a snowballs chance in you know where to survive, I think Rivian however will make it. RJ has built his company right, and is respected around the industry (something Elon Musk has never had). Now I do not think Rivian is worthy of a $70B valuation currently being talked about at this stage, as that is pure speculation, with no clear path to profitability, $10 to $20B sure, I would invest below that.
 

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Rivian has now put themselves in a position where they can only deliver to certain areas of the country, because of lack of service. Back when I made my reservation (May 2019), I was very excited, but that has certainly waned now. As long as GM makes their schedule and range estimates, I am all in. I am still holding onto my Rivian reservation, just as a plan B, but by November I think I will cancel it.

I got my Bolt battery recall fix today, and all is good, all the cells where perfectly balanced. Back to 100% charging.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Rivian has now put themselves in a position where they can only deliver to certain areas of the country, because of lack of service. Back when I made my reservation (May 2019), I was very excited, but that has certainly waned now. As long as GM makes their schedule and range estimates, I am all in. I am still holding onto my Rivian reservation, just as a plan B, but by November I think I will cancel it.

I got my Bolt battery recall fix today, and all is good, all the cells where perfectly balanced. Back to 100% charging.
Ya, Hummer may deliver to customers before Rivian if Rivian has more delays, which I expect they will. GM will make their range, and quite likely schedule. Thats a big battery pack in the Hummer.

Nice on the Bolt fix... I heard they just install very sensitive software that monitors the cells and lets you know if any are bad, or go bad. GM was right on it when they started having problems.
 

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Nice on the Bolt fix... I heard they just install very sensitive software that monitors the cells and lets you know if any are bad, or go bad. GM was right on it when they started having problems.
They actually run a diagnostic prior to the software update to verify the cells are all balanced within 0.08V. If they find some bad cells they would replace the defective module. My cell average was 3.94V, with a minimum of 3.94V (perfectly balanced after 95K miles!). The dealership told me they had actually replaced a few modules already for other customers. If they had found a bad module they would replace it with the newer cells, which are compatible with the old ones.

See this link:
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
They actually run a diagnostic prior to the software update to verify the cells are all balanced within 0.08V. If they find some bad cells they would replace the defective module. My cell average was 3.94V, with a minimum of 3.94V (perfectly balanced after 95K miles!). The dealership told me they had actually replaced a few modules already for other customers. If they had found a bad module they would replace it with the newer cells, which are compatible with the old ones.

See this link:
Interesting... Glad to hear your battery was good.
 

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Now, I do not lump Rivian in with Lordstown, Bollinger, and Atlis. I think those 3 have about a snowballs chance in you know where to survive, I think Rivian however will make it. RJ has built his company right, and is respected around the industry (something Elon Musk has never had). Now I do not think Rivian is worthy of a $70B valuation currently being talked about at this stage, as that is pure speculation, with no clear path to profitability, $10 to $20B sure, I would invest below that.
I agree with this 100%. However, I still think Rivian will be able to sell everything they produce and will only be constrained by their manufacturing capacity. Their products are differentiated enough to find a lot of buyers. They are supposed to start shipping in the next month or two, but I have heard of delays. I doubt they will be delayed beyond when the Hummers start shipping. Time will tell.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
I agree with this 100%. However, I still think Rivian will be able to sell everything they produce and will only be constrained by their manufacturing capacity. Their products are differentiated enough to find a lot of buyers. They are supposed to start shipping in the next month or two, but I have heard of delays. I doubt they will be delayed beyond when the Hummers start shipping. Time will tell.
Yes, I agree, for Rivian the issue is production now, but will shift to service as deliveries start, and later sales. Rivian has officially announced a 1 month delay in deliveries from June, to July, but I expect there will be more delays in the future. Rivian may deliver a dozen or so trucks in July / August, but I think Q4 is more realistic for any real numbers. I think Rivian will struggle to build and sell 1000 trucks in 2021.

For scale, Rivian has several headwinds, once they get through the initial EV nerds that have ordered trucks, they then have to market to people outside the inner EV circle. By mid 2022 the competition is going to be fierce for these EV pickup customers, and Rivian will have a hard time winning against Ford and GM who have amazing customer loyalty, and more capable (right sized) vehicles, and fully developed service networks. The Rivian truck is mid sized, and priced like a luxury German SUV. While I think Rivian will eventually make it, there is going to be massive losses for a while as they start to scale production at a time when the supply chain is quite stressed , and material costs are very high.

Buying from a new manufacture is like playing Russian Roulette, all new manufacturers have quality and reliability issues, so do people buy a $80K mid sized truck expecting it to break down? Or will most people wait and see? I think you will see a vast majority of Rivian reservation holders wait and see, meanwhile the competition arrives with a better mousetrap?
 

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Yes, I agree, for Rivian the issue is production now, but will shift to service as deliveries start, and later sales. Rivian has officially announced a 1 month delay in deliveries from June, to July, but I expect there will be more delays in the future. Rivian may deliver a dozen or so trucks in July / August, but I think Q4 is more realistic for any real numbers. I think Rivian will struggle to build and sell 1000 trucks in 2021.

For scale, Rivian has several headwinds, once they get through the initial EV nerds that have ordered trucks, they then have to market to people outside the inner EV circle. By mid 2022 the competition is going to be fierce for these EV pickup customers, and Rivian will have a hard time winning against Ford and GM who have amazing customer loyalty, and more capable (right sized) vehicles, and fully developed service networks. The Rivian truck is mid sized, and priced like a luxury German SUV. While I think Rivian will eventually make it, there is going to be massive losses for a while as they start to scale production at a time when the supply chain is quite stressed , and material costs are very high.

Buying from a new manufacture is like playing Russian Roulette, all new manufacturers have quality and reliability issues, so do people buy a $80K mid sized truck expecting it to break down? Or will most people wait and see? I think you will see a vast majority of Rivian reservation holders wait and see, meanwhile the competition arrives with a better mousetrap?
Reasonable points. I do think Tesla has helped some people get over the "new car company" bias, but of course they didn't do it with stellar quality. Yes Rivian is going to face some very tough competition, and it will be a tough road for them to become profitable. Tesla is finally making money on their cars and it took them many years. In my mind, Rivian's biggest challenge is not with the BEV tech, it is with the standard vehicle "tech". Literally thousands of parts in a GM or Ford has been through years of iterations, improvements and design changes. Just building a car seat that heats and ventilates is a new thing for Rivian, but not for GM. All GM does is update an older design and they are good to go. Rivian has to figure out how it all works. I get it. The thing I don't like about Tesla is exactly what the established car companies do well: internal comfort and convenience. Sorry Musk, but being forced to use a massive screen for most every car function is not what I am looking for.
 

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Reasonable points. I do think Tesla has helped some people get over the "new car company" bias, but of course they didn't do it with stellar quality. Yes Rivian is going to face some very tough competition, and it will be a tough road for them to become profitable. Tesla is finally making money on their cars and it took them many years. In my mind, Rivian's biggest challenge is not with the BEV tech, it is with the standard vehicle "tech". Literally thousands of parts in a GM or Ford has been through years of iterations, improvements and design changes. Just building a car seat that heats and ventilates is a new thing for Rivian, but not for GM. All GM does is update an older design and they are good to go. Rivian has to figure out how it all works. I get it. The thing I don't like about Tesla is exactly what the established car companies do well: internal comfort and convenience. Sorry Musk, but being forced to use a massive screen for most every car function is not what I am looking for.
Yes, you are exactly right, actually its even easier for GM, they need seats for the Hummer, and they just order the same seats as the Escalade with a different covering, same door handles, steering column, power window motors, key Fob's , etc etc etc... Not only that, Hummer rides on an all new Chassis, but that exact structural backbone will be under the Silverado EV, and Sierra EV as well, to give it scale. GM will build a Hummer Ev, Silverado Ev, Sierra EV, all riding on the same basic structure (so they can spread the development cost over 3 different vehicles) Likewise with the Caddy EV SUV, Hummer SUV, and other future large SUV ev's.

Tesla made EV's cool outside of the nerdy types, but now the big OEM's are here to capitalize, and I like GM's position best. Rivian is much better managed than Tesla was, and also much more well funded than Tesla was when they developed the S, X and 3. I think Rivian will ultimately succeed, but it won't be easy, their hardest days still lie ahead. Rivian really needs to make sure they have the first 100 trucks they deliver dialed in, so there are no troubles for the first buyers, as their reputation is fragile at this stage.
 

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My brief comment would be I see Rivian a bit differently than the others. They have substantial funding from Amazon and Ford. The others have a way to go and Lordstown is a virtually a scam. All of the orders they have are non-binding for delivery and a lot of management have resigned as a result of this sham.
 

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Discussion Starter · #15 ·
My brief comment would be I see Rivian a bit differently than the others. They have substantial funding from Amazon and Ford. The others have a way to go and Lordstown is a virtually a scam. All of the orders they have are non-binding for delivery and a lot of management have resigned as a result of this sham.
I agree with you on all accounts... Rivian has the luxury of being well financed, and well managed, I have high hoped for them, and would consider their product and investing.

Lordstown has a long road, no money, and a so so product, I am not as optimistic. If the people running Lordstown were smart, they would punt on their hub motor dreams, and just buy the ultium drive system from GM and put GM's system in their trucks, they would have a much better chance of making it that way, and maybe GM would help them financially.
 
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